While Green Party candidate Jill Stein is unlikely to win the presidency, her support in key “Blue Wall” battleground states could be decisive, with razor-thin margins between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump, according to polls.
Stein, who is on the ballot in key swing states, including Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, has drawn criticism from Democrats in recent weeks as the race tightens, amid claims she is giving Trump, the GOP nominee, an edge.
On Friday, the Democratic National Committee (DNC) released a new ad titled “Crucial,” targeting voters in those three states and accusing Stein of siphoning support from Harris, the Democratic nominee. The ad shows Stein’s face morphing into Trump’s, with the message: “A vote for Stein is really a vote for Trump.”
The ad also features a video segment of Trump speaking at a June campaign rally in Philadelphia, saying: “Jill Stein, I like her very much. You know why? She takes 100 percent from them [Democrats].”
While Democrats say that voters supporting Stein would potentially lean Democratic, it’s unclear whether all of those voters would have otherwise backed Harris or opted not to vote at all.
Stein’s campaign spokesperson previously told Newsweek in an email, “The notion that Democrats and Republicans own everyone’s votes and that Greens supposedly ‘take’ votes from the political establishment is preposterous. No candidate owns your vote, they have to earn your vote.”
Harris’ clearest path to victory next month would be to win the three blue wall battleground states of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, barring any shock results elsewhere. Trump’s most efficient path to 270 Electoral College votes would be to win the swing states of North Carolina, Georgia and flipping Pennsylvania. Trump narrowly won Pennsylvania in 2016 against former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, but President Joe Biden flipped it back in 2020.
Newsweek has reached out to Stein’s and Harris’ campaign for comment via email on Sunday.
Pennsylvania
The Keystone State is pivotal in the presidential race, as the winner of Pennsylvania and its 19 Electoral votes—more than any other swing state—could determine the outcome of the 2024 election.
A New York Times/Philadelphia Inquirer/Siena College poll of 857 likely voters in Pennsylvania found Harris leading Trump, but both dropping their share of the vote when third-party candidates like Stein are included.
The poll, conducted between October 7 and 10, shows Harris with 50 percent of the vote, compared to Trump’s 47 percent. However, with third-party candidates factored in, Harris drops to 49 percent and Trump to 45 percent, while Stein garners 1 percent, and Libertarian candidate Chase Oliver captures less than 1 percent. Harris’ lead is within the margin of error of plus or minus 3.8 percentage points.
A recent Quinnipiac University conducted October 3 to 7, among 1,412 likely voters found Stein and Oliver each receiving 1 percent of the vote in Pennsylvania, with Harris 49 percent and Trump 46 percent. In a hypothetical head-to-head matchup between only the Democratic and Republican nominees, Harris maintained 49 percent support, while Trump edged closer with 47 percent.
Among independents, who make up 23 percent of respondents, 43 percent support Harris, while 47 percent back Trump, and 3 percent support third-party candidates, according to the poll. The poll’s margin of error is plus or minus 2.6 percentage points.
With Harris’ narrow lead within the margin of error, Stein’s 1 percent support could tip the scales—if shifted to Harris, it could give her an edge over Trump, but if not, it could just as easily swing the race in Trump’s favor.
Aggregate polls, which provide a general pulse check on public opinion, are continuously updated as new data is added, shifting the averages in real time. The following percentages are as of Sunday morning.
The Times‘ aggregate poll has Harris leading 49 percent to Trump’s 48 percent in Pennsylvania. FiveThirtyEight shows a closer race, with Harris at 48 percent and Trump at 47.3 percent, while The Hill has Harris at 48.7 percent and Trump at 48 percent.
Wisconsin
Stein is polling similarly in Wisconsin. The Quinnipiac University poll of 1,073 likely voters in the state, conducted between October 3 and 7, found Trump leading Harris in the state, 48 to 46 percent. Stein and Oliver each secured 1 percent support.
The margin between the Republican and Democratic nominee stays the same if third-party candidates are excluded, with Trump receiving 49 percent of the vote and Harris 47 percent.
Among independents, who make up 33 percent of respondents, 47 percent support Trump, while 43 percent back Harris, and 3 percent support third-party candidates, according to the poll. The poll’s margin of error is plus or minus 3 percentage points.
A Marquette Law School poll of 882 registered voters conducted between September 18 and 26, found similar results, with Stein garnering 1 percent of the vote, and Harris leading by 4 percentage points, 48 percent to Trump’s 44 percent. This lead is within the margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percentage points.
Most aggregate polls show Harris and Trump separated by less than 1 percentage point, underscoring the significance of Stein’s share of the vote.
The Times‘ aggregate poll has Harris leading 49 percent to Trump’s 48 percent in Wisconsin. FiveThirtyEight shows a closer race, with Harris at 47.9 percent and Trump at 47.3 percent, while The Hill shows Trump up by 0.1 percent, 48.4 percent to Harris’ 48.3 percent.
Michigan
While a Quinnipiac University poll of 1,007 likely Michigan voters found Stein no longer in play—a sharp contrast from last month’s poll showing her at 2 percent—other surveys suggest she maintains similar support in the state.
The poll found Trump leading with 50 percent of the vote, Harris with 47, and Oliver and independent candidate Cornel West each receiving 1 percent. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.
Stein has come out against the U.S. policy towards Israel during the ongoing war in Gaza. Michigan has a large Arab American community, and according to a late August poll by the Council on American-Islamic Relations (CAIR), 40 percent of Muslim voters backed Stein versus just 12 percent for Harris and 18 percent for Trump.
“The Democrats cannot win without the support of the Muslim American community. And that community has left the station and is not coming back unless the Democrats decide that it’s more important to them to win the election than it is to conduct the genocide,” Stein said in a September interview with Newsweek. Israel denies it is conducting genocide.
The Times‘ aggregate poll has Harris leading 49 percent to Trump’s 48 percent in Michigan. FiveThirtyEight shows a closer race, with Harris at 47.7 percent and Trump at 47.0 percent, while The Hill shows Trump up by 0.8 percent, 48.7 percent to Harris’ 47.9 percent.
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