Taylor’s University’s Ong said turnout could prove just as important as voter sentiment.
In Johor’s 2022 state election, which saw BN winning 40 out of 56 seats, turnout was just above 50 per cent. By contrast, turnout in that year’s general election was about 75 per cent and PH won 14 of Johor’s 26 parliamentary seats.
Ong expects the figure on Jul 11 to fall somewhere in between, predicting that lower participation among non-Malay voters is likely to benefit BN more than PH.
WILL BN-PAS TIE-UP AFFECT CHINESE VOTE?
As for BN, the question is whether signs of its cooperation with the Islamist PAS could hamper its efforts to win over more Chinese voters.
Analysts earlier said rival PN’s decision to contest only 33 of Johor’s 56 seats — despite earlier signalling it would field candidates statewide — has reduced the chances of splitting the Malay vote, potentially benefiting BN.
PAS has urged its supporters to back BN candidates in seats where it is absent.
Party president Abdul Hadi said PAS did not want Johor to be governed by “liberals or non-Muslims”, fuelling speculation of closer cooperation between PAS and BN’s lynchpin party, United Malays National Organisation (UMNO), for future elections.
Analysts said such messaging could consolidate support for PH among Chinese voters worried about the prospect of a broader Malay-Muslim political alliance.
Azmi Hassan, a senior fellow at the Malaysia-based think tank Nusantara Academy for Strategic Research, said a PAS-UMNO collaboration could lead to a “siege mentality” for ethnic Chinese voters, who will then be more likely to cast their ballots for PH.
“Chinese voters in Johor will not be receptive to a Malay parties-centric pact, and they will more likely come out to vote for PH if the rumours of this pact (coming to fruition) becomes more concrete,” he added.
Before nomination day, Johor Chief Minister Onn Hafiz Ghazi had also said he did not want to “sit at the same table” as DAP in forming the next state government.
Former Johor DAP assemblywoman Gan Peck Cheng, who is retiring from politics, described the comments as inappropriate for a chief minister.
“As Johor’s leader, how can you say you do not want to sit with DAP when we will be in the state assembly together?” she said.
While some social media users viewed the remarks as racially charged, Onn Hafiz rejected the suggestion.
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