Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton and U.S. Senator John Cornyn are headed to a runoff in the Texas Republican U.S. Senate primary, the Associated Press projected, after neither candidate secured a majority of the vote Tuesday.
As both fell short of the 50 percent threshold, they will lock horns in a May runoff to decide the Republican nominee.
Why It Matters
The race between Paxton and Cornyn had developed into a test of the Republican Party’s direction in the Lone Star State, long dominated by the GOP.
The Republican nominee is favored in November; Texas has not elected a Democrat to statewide federal office in more than three decades, giving the GOP primary added weight. However, Democrats have gained ground in recent cycles, narrowing margins in major metropolitan areas, adding pressure on Republicans.
What To Know
The primary followed months of heavy spending and sharp attacks, reflecting the high stakes of the race. The candidates and allied super PACs spent tens of millions of dollars on television, digital ads and mail, making it one of the most expensive Republican primaries in Texas in recent years.
In the final days before voting, public polling showed a narrow edge for Paxton but a competitive race overall.
A RealClearPolling average placed Paxton at 37.3 percent and Cornyn at 35 percent, a margin of 2.3 percentage points. A recent Emerson College survey listed Paxton ahead by 4 points. Neither candidate consistently polled above 40 percent in the three-way field, which included U.S. Representative Wesley Hunt.
Under Texas law, a candidate must receive more than 50 percent of the vote to avoid a runoff.
Prediction markets showed stronger confidence in Paxton heading into Election Day. On Polymarket, Paxton was priced at 82 percent to win, compared with 17 percent for Cornyn. Kalshi showed similar pricing, with Paxton’s “Yes” shares trading at 82 cents and Cornyn’s at 18 cents.
Paxton and outside groups supporting him invested heavily in advertising, promoting his record as attorney general and his alignment with President Donald Trump. A pro-Paxton super PAC also organized additional campaign stops ahead of early voting.
Cornyn, meanwhile, relied on his long tenure in the Senate and backing from Republican leadership-aligned groups, which spent more than $50 million on advertising. Much of that messaging focused on contrasting his experience with Paxton’s 2023 impeachment.
What People Are Saying
D. Stephen Voss, political science professor at the University of Kentucky, to Newsweek via email: “Texans haven’t elected a Democrat to the U.S. Senate since the Eighties. Donald Trump won Texas in 2024 by more than 13 percentage points. Given past voting behavior, the GOP shouldn’t be struggling in Texas. But the Republicans, like the Democrats, seem to lean toward nominating candidates most likely to discourage swing voters.”
Steve Bannon, former White House adviser to President Donald Trump, to Politico’s Playbook on Monday: “My belief is the Trump team should have stayed out of this race. Absolutely.”
Trump, to reporters on February 16: “They’ve all supported me, they’re all good, and you’re supposed to pick one. We’ll see what happens, but I support all three.”
What Happens Next
Tuesday’s result marks a pivotal moment for Texas Republicans, launching the next phase of the 2026 race for U.S. Senate.
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