Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney has called a snap election for late April, setting up a contest with Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre in a race that polls now show mainly favoring the Liberal Party—a flip from last month’s polling numbers.
Newsweek has reached out to the press contacts for Canada’s Liberal and Conservative parties via email on Sunday.
Why It Matters
Carney, who does not currently hold a seat in Parliament, but recently succeeded Justin Trudeau as prime minister, has called snap elections for April 28 in what is seen as a major test for the Liberal and Conservative parties. Carney will represent the Liberal Party while Poilievre, who has been at times compared ideologically to President Donald Trump, will lead the Conservative ticket.
The election comes as the friendly rapport between Canada and the United States has soured, with tensions elevated in recent weeks following Trump’s tariff agenda and repeated remarks about making Canada the 51st state.
U.S.-Canada relations are expected to be a defining issue in the upcoming election, as both parties grapple with rising tensions and national sovereignty concerns.
What To Know
With the general election just over a month away, polls show the race essentially neck-and-neck. As of Sunday, polling aggregator 338Canada had the Liberal Party at 39 percent, the Conservative Party at 37 percent, and New Democratic Party at 11 percent. The Liberal Party’s lead falls within the margin of error, which is plus or minus 4 percentage points.
The same aggregator shows that when Trudeau announced his resignation on January 5, his party was polling around 20 percent compared to the Conservative party more than doubling support, at 45 percent. That was also prior to Trump taking office on January 20. The polls have now nearly flipped.
A CityNews-Léger poll of 1,504 Canadians conducted from March 10 to 13 found the Liberal Party at 40 percent to the Conservative Party’s 37 percent. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.49 percentage points.
Another poll of 1,500 Canadians found the Liberal Party at 40 percent and the Conservatives at 36 percent. Conducted by Liaison Strategies between March 17 to 19, it has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.53 percentage points.
However, an Abacus Data survey of 1,700 Canadian adults found a 38 percent Conservative Party lead compared to the Liberal Party’s 34 percent. The poll was conducted between March 10 and 12, and has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.4 percentage points.
An Ipsos poll of 1,000 Canadians, conducted March 14 to 17, found Carney leading Poilievre by at least 10 percentage points on issues related to handling Trump, including being a “tough negotiator,” pushing back on Trump’s demands, and uniting Canadians on “changes and investments required to make us less dependent on the U.S.” The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.8 percentage points.
Carney also outpaces Poilievre in overall approval. He is the only Canadian leader in the poll with a higher approval than disapproval rate, earning a 48 percent approval rating and 30 percent disapproval. Poilievre holds a 35 percent approval rating, with 52 percent disapproval.
What People Are Saying
President Donald Trump told Fox News’ Laura Ingraham on Tuesday: “The Conservative that’s running is stupidly no friend of mine. I don’t know him, but he said negative things…I think it’s easier to deal actually with a Liberal and maybe they’re going to win, but I don’t really care. It doesn’t matter to me at all.”
Pierre Poilievre responded at a Wednesday news conference: “It’s clear that President Trump wants the Liberals in power because they will keep this country weak. What Canadians need, though, is a leader who’s tough and firm and stands by his convictions, a leader who will make Canada strong, self-reliant and stand on its own two feet, a leader who will put Canada first.”
Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney said in a video posted on X, formerly Twitter, on Sunday, in response to Trump’s push for Canada to become the 51st state: “There will always be a Canada.”
What Happens Next?
Trump has imposed a 25 percent tariff on Canadian imports, alongside a 10 percent tariff on Canadian energy imports. Canada has responded by implementing its own retaliatory tariffs, leaving the two countries in a trade war.
The snap election is set for 36 days from now—just 26 days after the United States is set to impose new tariffs on Canada.
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