CHINA’S ROLE LOOMS LARGE
China’s growing influence over Myanmar is unlikely to deliver lasting stability, analysts added.
Beijing in 2024 stepped up economic ties with the junta, helping to shore up the regime at a time of intense pressure.
Marciel noted that while Beijing has exerted pressure on some ethnic armed groups, such groups “have a long history of accommodating that pressure in the short term, but then reverting back to opposition to the military”, he said.
He said neither China’s involvement nor the election itself offers a credible path to stability, given the junta’s deep unpopularity.
After nearly five years in power, he added, the military has “shown no ability to run the economy or to otherwise govern the country”.
China’s prominent role also has regional implications.
While many ASEAN governments, including Thailand, have said that Myanmar’s election is not free or fair, frustration is growing over the bloc’s Five-Point Consensus.
The post-coup framework for ending violence and restoring dialogue has “failed utterly”, Marciel noted, “mostly because of the unwillingness of the military in Myanmar to compromise”.
That, he added, could lead some ASEAN members to favour renewed engagement, driven by concern about China’s growing influence, despite the “sham nature of this election”.
From an economic perspective, Bowman warned that Naypyidaw’s dependence on Beijing may come at a long-term cost.
“One of the worries that many in the country have is that, in order to get China’s help in clamping down on some of the ethnic armed groups … the regime has effectively promised China a free range on things like Myanmar’s mineral resources,” she said.
Myanmar’s resources have long flowed across the border to China, she noted.
“Whether it’s been teak … jade, and nowadays it’s antimony, it’s tin, it’s light and heavy rare earths – all of which are going out at an incredibly low value in return to Myanmar and making big profits and giving China a big strategic position,” Bowman said.
“What’s most important is that Myanmar works to maximise the value of those resources for the country and also ties that into a federal political settlement,” she added.
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