For countries like Cambodia and Vietnam, the benefits could increase if Dawei develops into part of a regional production and value-chain network, rather than simply a transit route between Thailand and Myanmar, he said.
Cambodia could potentially gain another gateway for selected agricultural, processed and manufactured exports to western markets, while southern Vietnam could benefit from an additional logistics option for selected supply chains connected through Cambodia and Thailand.
“The important point is that not all cargo from Cambodia or Vietnam would need to shift to Dawei. The value would be in giving businesses an additional competitive option,” he said.
Ruth argued that Dawei could be a legitimate Myanmar national-development project if the government there can demonstrate its own industrial, trade and logistics reasoning, not relying on other regional players.
“But that is very different from presenting it as infrastructure that Thailand needs,” he said.
“The danger is repeating the same mistake seen in the Land Bridge process. Beginning with an attractive megaproject and then looking for the demand and evidence needed to justify it,” he added.
Shifting priority from developing its own coastal industrial hub in Ranong province – as proposed under the Land Bridge – abroad to Dawei risks Thailand outsourcing environmental risk, said Teerachai.
“From a nationalistic standpoint, developing an industrial hub abroad allows Thailand to bypass local environmental impacts,” he said.
Ruth agreed, noting it could help Thailand preserve its Andaman coast for tourism, while industrial activity, pollution and waste are generated and located across the border in Myanmar.
“That may be politically attractive to some parties, but it raises serious questions about sovereignty, environmental responsibility and the equitable distribution of costs and benefits,” he said.
Conducting business with a regime whose leaders, military-controlled businesses and certain important sectors are subject to extensive targeted sanctions remains fraught with risks for Thailand, Teerachai said.
Thailand is officially a candidate to join the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), an influential grouping of mostly wealthy economies whose accession process scrutinises areas including governance, transparency and responsible business conduct.
That could put greater scrutiny on how Thailand deepens its economic relationship with Myanmar. An August joint statement said Bangkok supports Myanmar’s “full and equal participation” in ASEAN mechanisms, as Anutin’s government increasingly treats its neighbour’s military-backed administration as an economic partner.
Teerachai argued that the two tracks could increasingly come into tension. “Entering joint ventures with a sanctioned regime inevitably links investments to grave human rights violations,” he said.
Additional reporting by Jarupat Karunyaprasit
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