Nate Silver has outlined four “distinct periods” in President Donald Trump’s approval rating.
Writing in his Substack blog Silver Bulletin, the statistician and political analyst said that there have been four main phases during Trump’s presidency in which his approval rating has felt “distinct.”
Why It Matters
Measuring Trump’s approval rating is useful in taking the temperature of the nation and the extent to which voters support his policies. A strong approval rating might buoy the administration and encourage it to continue its policies, while, conversely, a negative rating might make it change course.
Shoring up political support will be particularly important when voters head to the midterm elections next year.
What To Know
Silver said the first period took place between January 21 and April 29 and showed Trump’s approval rating rapidly decline. He said that the president’s popularity hit a low when he announced his tariff policy in April.
The second phase took place between April 30 to June 10 and was when Trump started “to get more popular,” Silver said. By June 10, Trump’s approval rating was at -3.5 percentage points.
Then, from June 11 to July 10, Silver said “Trump’s net approval rating starts to gradually fall again and ends up around -7.”
From July 11 to the present day, Silver said, “Nothing really happens” and that Trump’s approval rating has bounced between -6 and -10 percentage points.
As of September 14, he said Trump’s net approval rating is -7.6 percentage points. He said that this makes him more popular than he was at this point in his first term, when his net popularity was -15 percentage points. However, he said it makes him slightly more popular than former President Joe Biden was during the same period. Biden’s popularity at a comparable period was -16 percentage points.
Silver’s analysis comes amid negative poling about the president. Last month, a Quinnipiac poll revealed that the president has a 37 percent approval rating versus a 55 percent disapproval rating, a new low for his second term from that pollster.
Similarly, Trump has fallen to his lowest net approval rating so far, according to Newsweek‘s tracker: -11 at the end of August.
What People Are Saying
President Donald Trump, in an August 24 post on Truth Social, said: “Except what is written and broadcast in the Fake News, I now have the highest poll numbers I’ve ever had, some in the 60’s and even 70’s. Thank you. MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN!!!”
What Happens Next
Trump’s popularity will likely fluctuate as his presidency continues.
The midterms take place in November 2026.
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