NBA Finals Latest Odds Entering Game 3: Series Winner, MVP, Series Leaders

As far as oddsmakers were concerned, there were three sure things going into the 2025 NBA Finals between the Pacers and the Thunder:

• 1) The Thunder had the upper hand (to say the least)
• 2) It was going to take something shocking for anyone besides Shai Gilgeous-Alexander to win Finals MVP
• 3) SGA was also going to lead this series in scoring

As expected, the Thunder are in firm control of this series at it heads to Indianapolis for Games 3 and 4. And barring injury, Gilgeous-Alexander — who has already scored 72 points in this series — is going to comfortably lead the Finals in scoring.

In fact, SGA’s odds to win Finals MVP and score the most points in the series are no longer available at a number of sportsbooks.

NBA Finals Winner Odds (as of June 10)

The Pacers’ Game 1 comeback showed they’re no pushover.

Still, the top sportsbooks all see Indiana as major underdogs as the series shifts to Gainbridge Fieldhouse in Indy for Games 3 and 4.

NBA Finals Series Leader Odds (as of June 10)

NBA Finals Series Made Threes Leader Odds, Analysis, Pick

Each of the four players listed above has a compelling case after two games.

Nesmith, the current favorite, has been red-hot from deep throughout the playoffs. He’s shooting 49.5 percent from 3 this postseason, including just under 47 percent vs. the Thunder on plenty of volume (7 3PA in Game 1, 8 3PA in Game 2).

The balance of the Thunder, plus Dort’s own inconsistency from outside, makes him a wild card. In 18 playoff games this year, he’s drained at least four threes five times, but he’s also had seven games where he made one 3-pointer or fewer.

Haliburton’s high usage rate makes him a good bet to get plenty of looks. But against a Thunder team that has held him to just 9-for-26 shooting (34.6 percent) from deep in four matchups this year, he doesn’t offer a ton of value at his current odds.

Best bet: Nesmith (+135 at DraftKings)

NBA Finals Series Assists Leader Odds, Analysis, Pick

There’s no denying Haliburton’s ceiling as a passer, but he’s hardly carved up the Thunder in any of the four games he’s played against them this year. Since dishing out eight assists the first time these teams met back in December, Haliburton has recorded 3, 6 and 6 assists in the most recent IND vs. OKC matchups.

Before we go any further, consider Haliburton and SGA’s head-to-head assists-per-game numbers in 2024-25, including both the regular season and the Finals:

• Haliburton apg vs. OKC: 5.5 in reg. season; 6.0 in Finals; 5.75 apg overall
• Gilgeous-Alexander apg vs. IND: 8.0 in reg. season; 5.5 in Finals; 6.75 apg overall

With that in mind, SGA strikes us as the best bet here, though he’s much less tempting at the current best price of +160 at bet365 than he was when we recommended him at +500 at DK prior to Game 1.

OKC’s star point guard finished Game 1 with just three assists as the Pacers made him into a shoot-first player in the series opener (he tied his playoff-high with 30 field-goal attempts), but he was back to facilitating in Game 2, with 8 assists and 21 FGA.

Another reason to like SGA is his consistency. He has had at least eight assists in five of OKC’s last seven games dating back to the Western Conference Finals vs. Minnesota. He has also had at least six dimes in 14 of 18 playoff games this year.

Unless Haliburton explodes for a couple monster assist nights in this series (which we certainly shouldn’t rule out), I like SGA’s consistency to allow him to win this battle.

Best bet: Gilgeous-Alexander (+160 at bet365)

NBA Finals Series Rebounds Leader Odds, Analysis, Pick

There’s another intriguing battle unfolding on the glass. Chet Holmgren, Isaiah Hartenstein and Pascal Siakam all have a real chance to lead the series in rebounding.

Hartenstein has been coming off the bench in this series. But that hasn’t stopped him from putting together by far the best per-minute rebounding numbers of any player in this series.

After grabbing nine boards in just 17 minutes in Game 1, he pulled down eight more in 22 minutes in Game 2.

As long as you trust Hartenstein to hold up well enough defensively against the Pacers to consistently log 25 minutes or so per game, he’s a great bet to lead the series in rebounds. And after posting a plus/minus of +2 in 17 minutes in Game 1 and +17 in 22 minutes in Game 2, it’s hard to imagine him falling out of the rotation any time soon.

Holmgren bounced back from an awful night offensively in Game 1 with 15 points on 6-for-11 FG shooting in 28 minutes, but he grabbed just six rebounds apiece in Games 1 and 2.

Barring Indiana’s spread attack rendering Hartenstein unplayable for OKC, I like him to out-rebound both Siakam (6.5 rebounds per 36 minutes in the playoffs) and Holmgren (10.2 rebounds per 36 minutes in the playoffs) the rest of the way.

Hartenstein’s per-36 rebounding numbers have been incredible all season, and although we’re working with a small NBA Finals sample size, it’s worth noting that he’s been an even more effective rebounder in this series:

• Hartenstein reb/36 (regular season): 13.8
• Hartenstein reb/36 (playoffs): 12.2
• Hartenstein reb/36 (NBA Finals): 15.7

Best bet: Hartenstein (+150 at bet365)

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