Every week this season, Newsweek Sports Betting Editor Tyler Everett is offering his ATS picks for the top college football games of the week.
Week 6 of the 2025 college football season has a tough act to follow after the fireworks that Week 5 delivered.
Vanderbilt vs. Alabama in a rematch of last year’s memorable upset by the Commodores is one of the headliners on Saturday afternoon. Later, the top-20 battle between Miami and Florida State in primetime promises to be one of the best installments of that rivalry in a long time.
Texas vs. Florida is among the other under-the-radar games that we’re excited to see this weekend.
- No. 9 Texas (-5.5) vs. Florida — Saturday, 3:30 p.m. (ABC)
- No. 16 Vanderbilt vs. No. 10 Alabama (-12.5) — Saturday, 3:30 p.m. (ESPN)
- No. 3 Miami (-4.5) vs. No. 18 Florida State — Saturday, 7:30 p.m. (ABC)
No. 9 Texas (-5.5) vs. Florida — Saturday, 3:30 p.m.
Picks: Florida +5.5 (best available odds: -110 at FanDuel); Under 42.5 (-108 at DK)
At first glance, taking a Gators team coming off three straight losses, followed by a Week 5 bye, to hang with the No. 9 Longhorns sounds ludicrous, doesn’t it?
But there are a couple of reasons to like Florida to at least keep Saturday’s matchup with the preseason No. 1 team in the country interesting.
If you’re uninterested in backing the Gators, the quality of both of these defenses — not to mention how underwhelming Arch Manning and DJ Lagway have been to date — makes the Under another great bet in this matchup.
Per ESPN’s SP+, Texas is the best defensive team in the country, and Florida is No. 24.
Back to the case for Florida, though. Faith in this team has to start with what it did late in 2024. After it was written off following a 4-5 start, Florida beat LSU as a slight home underdog to get to 5-5. A week later, UF pulled off one of the biggest upsets of the year, stunning then-No. 9 Ole Miss 24-17 as 13.5-point home ‘dogs.
With that in mind, I’m going to think twice before ruling out an against-the-ropes Billy Napier squad. There’s also reason to believe talented Gators QB DJ Lagway is due for a step forward. His season is off to a horrific start that included a five-interception night vs. LSU and a listless performance vs. Miami (12-for-23 passing for just 61 yards, with 0 touchdowns and four sacks).
Lagway is yet to resemble the player who flashed late last year, but in a do-or-die game at home, he’s worth keeping an eye on in this one, even against the loaded Longhorns D.
Perhaps the biggest reason to like Florida to cover, though, is what we’ve seen from preseason Heisman Trophy favorite Manning so far this year. Struggling against Ohio State on the road in Week 1 was one thing, but Manning also played poorly against UTEP in Week 3. His 11-for-25 day passing for 114 yards in that one set off a ton of red flags.
Manning did put up big numbers vs. San Jose State and Sam Houston two of the last three weeks, but he’s yet to come anywhere close to living up to the massive hype against a quality defense.
For me, everything is adding up to this being a rock fight, making it hard to resist taking Florida to cover as the home ‘dog.
No. 16 Vanderbilt vs. No. 10 Alabama (-12.5) — Saturday, 3:30 p.m.
Pick: Vanderbilt +12.5 (best available odds: -110 at FanDuel)
Forget the narrative about whether “David” can shock “Goliath” for the second time in as many years.
Despite this program’s history, QB Diego Pavia and this Commodores are hardly some also-ran hoping for another miracle on Saturday night. Just ask Virginia Tech, South Carolina and Utah State (each of those teams lost to Vandy by at least 20 points this season).
Vandy is solid on both sides of the ball, thanks in large part to one of the best, most balanced running games in the nation. Pavia is one of three Commodores averaging at least 5.3 yards per carry on 20-plus carries so far this year, and four players have at least 10 receptions, including preseason first-team All-SEC tight end Eli Stowers.
This Commodores offense faces a tough task against a Bama D that entered the season with lofty expectations and looked the part last Saturday night in Athens. The Tide held Georgia to just 21 points in that contest after limiting the Dawgs to just 2-of-8 on third-down. Bama did, however, allow Georgia to pick up 6.9 yards per carry on 33 rushing attempts, including four runs of 20-plus yards.
This also seems like a good place to mention that back in Week 1, Alabama struggled to stop Florida State’s running game. The Noles rushed for 230 yards on 49 carries in that contest, including 16 rushing attempts for 78 yards by Tommy Castellanos.
All that being said, given how well Crimson Tide QB Ty Simpson played last week, I wouldn’t hesitate to take Alabama to cover at -6.5 in this revenge game. In fact, I’d probably play Bama up to -9.5 at home.
The current 12.5-point spread, however, is excessive, especially against a Vandy team with a clear strength that should — at least on paper — create some serious problems for the Alabama defense.
No. 3 Miami (-4.5) vs. No. 18 Florida State — Saturday, 7:30 p.m.
Pick: Miami -4 (best available odds: -110 at bet365)
Let’s start by noting that the Canes are listed as 4.5-point favorites at FanDuel and DraftKings. To me, they’re especially tempting as long as they’re available at -4 at bet365.
Miami has gotten off to a number of hot starts in recent years, only to melt down late in the season (including last year). I’m convinced this year’s squad is different, though.
The Canes are excellent on both lines of scrimmage, and they’ve already physically dominated three solid teams: Notre Dame in the season opener, South Florida in Week 3 and Florida* in Week 4.
Mario Cristobal’s squad also has the benefit of coming off a bye, while Florida State lost at Virginia in overtime last Friday night. The Noles offense has been impressive under OC Gus Malzahn, including in Week 1 against a Bama squad that beat Georgia on the road last week.
This Saturday, though, I don’t see FSU having much success on the ground against star DE Rueben Bain and the stout Miami front seven. Remember, the Canes have already bottled up Notre Dame in Week 1 (28 carries for just 93 yards), South Florida in Week 3 (27 carries for 40 yards) and Florida in Week 4 (29 carries for 80 yards).
Those performances make it hard to imagine Florida State getting its running game going in this contest. If FSU QB Tommy Castellanos has to win this game with his arm, I don’t see the Noles keeping this game close for 60 minutes.
On the other side of the ball, the Florida State D looked excellent in Week 1 against Bama, but it struggled to get off the field vs. Virginia last week, even on a night when it came up with three interceptions. The Noles surrendered 27 first downs and 440 yards of offense vs. UVA — including 200-plus both on the ground and through the air — in that double-overtime loss as 7.5-point road favorites.
*Despite the Gators’ 1-3 record, Miami’s 26-7 win over Florida was yet another early-season statement by the Canes.
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