New Jersey Republicans are returning their mail-in ballots at a higher clip than Democrats in an early positive sign for GOP gubernatorial hopeful Jack Ciattarelli, as polls show a tightening race between him and Rep. Mikie Sherrill in the high-stakes race.
Garden State Republicans have so far notched an 18.61% return rate for their mail-in ballots, outpacing the Democrats’ 16.55%, according to data compiled and analyzed by DecisionDeskHQ’s director of political science, Michael Pruser.
GOP pollster Adam Geller, who has worked with the Ciattarelli campaign, told The Post that Republicans have historically been less inclined to vote by mail, meaning this lead in the rate of early ballot returns could be a hopeful sign.
“Clearly, it’s encouraging for the Republicans right now,” Geller said. “You could argue that, in addition to coming around to vote by mail, it could be a measurement of the enthusiasm for the candidate.”
Brent Buchanan, the president and CEO of Cygnal polling firm, said that the early mail-in data is interesting given President Trump’s growing popularity in the Garden State.
“Republicans have gotten serious about participating in early voting,” Buchanan told The Post.
“Pair that with the strong shift statewide toward Trump, and you have a growing recipe for Republican wins up and down the ticket.”
Kamala Harris only won New Jersey by a 6% margin in the 2024 presidential election, marking the narrowest Democratic margin in the state since 1992, according to the New Jersey Globe.
President Trump is now also polling better than outgoing Democratic Gov. Phil Murphy, according to a stunning recent survey by Emerson College.
Still, despite the GOP mail-in enthusiasm, the pollsters cautioned against reading too much into early data.
“The problem with voting by mail is that you don’t know from one day to the next what you’re going to get. Which counties may be lagging behind and may suddenly produce lots and lots of ballots,” Geller said.
Dave Wasserman, editor of the nonpartisan Cook Political Report, said that it is still too early to determine what the electorate will look like.
“It may be that Democrats return their ballots later,” he noted.
Wasserman added that the GOP appeared “energized for change” after eight years of Democratic control of the Garden State’s government — but said the race will likely come down to independent voters no matter what.
Independent voters had a return rate of just 9.32% for their mail-in ballots, according to Pruser’s analysis.
Democrats dramatically outnumber Republicans in New Jersey, 2,391,043 to 1,568,949, with 2,161,088 Independents, according to data compiled by the Independent Voter Project. That data set was last updated in late August.
For much of the race, Sherrill had been the runaway frontrunner, with some polls pegging her with a near-double-digit lead.
But that began to shift last month.
An internal poll conducted by Geller showed Ciattarelli with a threadbare lead, and an Emerson College Polling survey pegged Sherrill and Ciattarelli as being neck and neck.
Other polls have shown that the race is getting tighter, something that has spooked national Democrats.
Sherrill has a 3.3 percentage point advantage over her conservative counterpart, according to the latest RealClearPolitics aggregate of polling. Exactly one month ago, she had an 8.3 point lead.
For context, the RCP aggregate underestimated Ciattarelli’s support by some 5 points in the 2021 New Jersey gubernatorial race. Ciattarelli lost to incumbent Gov. Phil Murphy (D) by about 3 points.
Sherrill and Ciattarelli are set to square off in a debate on Wednesday. New Jerseyans head to the polls on November 4.
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