For more than two months, a new round of European Union sanctions against Russia has remained stalled on the political table.
First vetoed by Hungary and Slovakia over an unrelated dispute with Ukraine involving the Druzhba pipeline, and later challenged by the energy turmoil unleashed by the US war on Iran, the proposed sanctions, which include a full ban on maritime services for Russian oil tankers, are still waiting for a resolution.
But recent developments in Budapest and Washington have suddenly improved the odds, raising hopes in Brussels that the 20th package could soon be unblocked.
The crushing defeat of Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán last Sunday is set to transform the power balance, opening a window of opportunity to remove the outstanding vetoes on the sanctions and the €90 billion loan for Ukraine.
While few officials and diplomats expect Orbán, a notorious disrupter, to break the deadlock before he leaves office in May, expectations are sky high for his successor, Péter Magyar, who has promised to be a “constructive” voice at the table.
There is still a question mark on how the Slovak Prime Minister, Robert Fico, a close ideological ally of Orbán’s, might behave after the change of guard. Unlike Orbán, who has repeatedly tested the limits of EU norms, Fico prefers to engage in dialogue with his fellow leaders to find a possible compromise to lift his vetoes.
According to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, the Druzhba pipeline will be repaired “not completely, but enough to function” by the end of the month. The infrastructure was badly damaged in late January by Russian drones.
The defeat of Orbán and the repair of Druzhba could play together to ease Fico’s opposition. The Slovak previously said he had no issue with the substance of the sanctions themselves – only with the interruption of oil flows through Druzhba.
Fico’s office did not reply to an Euronews request for comment.
Russia’s ‘ironic’ windfall
Meanwhile, in Washington, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced that the administration would not provide further sanctions relief to Russia, a measure introduced last month to cope with the shockwaves sent by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
The 30-day permit, which expired over the weekend, allowed other countries to purchase Russian oil that was already at sea.
“We will not be renewing the general license on Russian oil, and we will not be renewing the general license on Iranian oil,” Bessent said on Wednesday at the White House.
The American decision to provide sanctions relief to Russia had outraged Europeans, who saw it as an “unilateral”, “wrong” and “self-defeating” move at a critical moment when Moscow was earning windfalls.
The price of Russian Urals crude has been hovering over $110 per barrel, the highest level in more than a decade. As a result, Russia’s revenue from crude and refined products rose sharply to $19 billion (€16 billion) in March compared to $9.7 billion (€8.2 billion) in February, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA).
The injection has helped the Kremlin cushion a trend of economic stagnation that left a deficit of $60 billion (€50.9 billion) in the first quarter of 2026, far beyond projections.
“We believe that, in general, giving any relief in terms of sanctions, at this point in time, vis-à-vis Russia is not helpful in maintaining the pressure on Russia,” Paula Pinho, the European Commission’s chief spokesperson, said on Thursday.
“It should be ironic that Russia is actually benefiting from this war in the Middle East, but ironic as it is, it is the reality.”
Pinho expressed hope that the sanctions would soon be approved, citing the latest deadly attacks by Russia against Ukrainian cities as another reason to pile pressure.
However, even if the veto is lifted and the package is endorsed, its centrepiece is in doubt. When EU ambassadors negotiatedthe sanctions, they decided that the full ban on maritime services should be introduced in coordination with G7 allies.
The full ban is meant to replace the G7 price cap, which Brussels considers to be outdated after years of Moscow blatantly bypassing it with its “shadow fleet”.
Asked if the bloc should wait for an agreement at the G7 level, which for now is entirely hypothetical, Pinho left the door open to go it alone.
“If we put forward a package of sanctions, if we also have the support at the international level by the G7, the better and greater the impact will be. So we always try to align our efforts with the G7,” the spokesperson said.
“On this one, we continue discussions in this sense. This would be the ideal outcome. If it is not possible, we’ll see how to proceed.”
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