With rallies drawing tens of thousands and prominent analysts suggesting she has an early edge, Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, a New York Democrat, is emerging as one of her party’s most formidable potential 2028 presidential candidates.
The progressive congresswoman from New York has been barnstorming the country alongside progressive Senator Bernie Sanders, a Vermont independent, on their “Fighting Oligarchy” tour, drawing some of the largest crowds of any political event this year. In recent weeks, the progressive congresswoman and Sanders have packed venues with 36,000 in Los Angeles, 34,000 in Denver, and another 30,000 in Folsom, California.
Why It Matters
Democrats have largely struggled to respond to President Donald Trump and Republicans since their defeat in the 2024 election. Analysts and activists have consistently highlighted that the party appears leaderless, without a clear direction.
While potential announcements for 2028 candidates are likely still a couple years off, a number of recent polls are already showing how voters are thinking about the upcoming primary—with Ocasio-Cortez emerging as one of the top few contenders.
What to Know
Polling expert Nate Silver recently predicted that Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez is currently the most likely Democrat to lead the party’s 2028 presidential ticket.
During a conversation with former FiveThirtyEight staffer Galen Druke on Silver’s Silver Bulletin Substack, Silver said Ocasio-Cortez would have been his top pick—until Druke beat him to it in their “Democratic primary draft.”
“I think there’s a lot of points in her favor at this very moment,” Druke said during the discussion. “Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez has broad appeal across the Democratic Party.”
Still, Silver noted it remains uncertain whether she will run, and her support could splinter in a crowded primary. Yet her ongoing national tour and growing media presence suggest she may be laying the groundwork for a campaign.
Druke pointed to a Yale University poll showing Ocasio-Cortez with a +60 net favorability rating among Democrats—the highest of any potential candidate.
While her intentions remain unclear, Ocasio-Cortez is trending upward in early polling for 2028. A recent poll from Zeteo and Data for Progress found that in a Democratic primary scenario without former Vice President Kamala Harris, Ocasio-Cortez was tied for second with Democratic Senator Cory Booker of New Jersey at 14 percent, behind former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg at 17 percent. In a broader scenario with Harris included, she received 12 percent support, placing her third.
Another CNN poll conducted March 6 to 9 showed Ocasio-Cortez leading in one key area. When asked which Democrat “best reflects the core values” of the party, 10 percent of Democratic voters named her—just ahead of Harris at 9 percent and Sanders at 8 percent.
‘She has learned a lot’
Strategists say her messaging—focused on working-class economic justice and corporate accountability—resonates at a time when many voters are seeking clarity and bold leadership.
Robert Creamer, a Democratic strategist, told Newsweek that the lack of clear leadership within the party creates an opportunity for a new generation of Democrats.
“There’s room now for a chorus of voices to stand up. And people want to see leaders fighting back,” he said.
Imani Cheers, a professor and media analyst at George Washington University, said Ocasio-Cortez is increasingly viewed as a leader ready to confront the nation’s deepening political crisis.
“We are seeing other leaders emerge. AOC, for example, still resonates. We’ve got elected officials in different branches of government actively raising the alarm. They’re engaged in civil discourse, but they’re also speaking truthfully and urgently about what’s happening right now,” she told Newsweek.
Still, the Democratic bench remains crowded and competitive. Race to the WH’s polling average, which aggregates data across states, shows Harris and Buttigieg still leading in overall name recognition and support, but Ocasio-Cortez continues to climb.
“She has learned a lot as a politician since those early days opposing Amazon and especially those early days of the ‘Abolish ICE’ stuff that was very unpopular,” Druke said on Silver’s podcast. “Ultimately, if you listen to her message today, it’s all about the economy.”
What People Are Saying
Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez at a Saturday rally in Los Angeles: “I heard that someone was flying a plane with a banner that said this is Trump country… It sure don’t look like it today. I don’t think this is Trump country. This is our country.”
FiveThirtyEight staffer Galen Druke in a conversation with Nate Silver: “The media is kind of obsessed with her, and they’re going to follow her every move, which means she will be able to keep the attention on her throughout the primary process.”
Monica Crowley, a former official in the Treasury Department during the first Trump administration, told Fox News last November: “Just a word of warning to the Republicans, to my party: Do not underestimate AOC. She’s young, she’s vibrant, she’s attractive.”
What Happens Next
Democrats interested in running in 2028 are not expected to officially announce for a couple more years, though it’s possible someone could launch a campaign earlier.
Buttigieg, California Governor Gavin Newsom, and several other prominent Democratic governors are rumored to be considering bids. While Harris is widely expected to weigh another presidential run, she is also reportedly eyeing a campaign for California governor in the state’s 2026 election.
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