The Las Vegas Raiders made it official on Thursday night, selecting Indiana Hoosiers quarterback Fernando Mendoza with the first pick in the 2026 NFL Draft.
Many believe the team has secured its franchise quarterback, and that means high expectations for Mendoza. While he might not immediately take the silver and black to the postseason or the Super Bowl, most think he will perform at a very high level in future seasons
Mendoza comes in with those high expectations, and with that comes some chance he could dazzle and amaze enough in his first season to win the NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year. His odds to do so are quite strong after the Raiders chose him in the draft, but he’s not the favorite.
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Many sports books have their odds for Offensive and Defensive Rookie of the Year. And many of those books feature Love as the favorite, followed closely by wide receiver Carnell Tate, who the Tennessee Titans drafted fourth overall.
The Kalshi prediction market also offers prediction prices for the award, showing Mendoza as a close second to running back Jeremiyah Love.
Love, a Heisman Trophy contender from Notre Dame, went as the third overall pick in Thursday’s first round to the Arizona Cardinals. Not all fans loved the pick, indicating the team had other needs it should’ve addressed before drafting a running back.
However, he was certainly a top-five-caliber player in this draft and is capable of doing what it takes in his rookie season to win the NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year award. He had 199 carries for 1,372 yards and 18 touchdowns last season playing for Marcus Freeman and the Fighting Irish.
Love also showed his athleticism as a receiver, with 23 receptions for 280 yards and three touchdowns. The main issue with the Cardinals is that they are still searching for a star quarterback after releasing starter Kyler Murray, who played in Arizona for seven seasons.
Ironically, Murray was the first overall pick in 2019 by the Cardinals and won the NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year Award.
What bodes well for Mendoza is that four of the last seven players to win the award were quarterbacks. The Los Angeles Chargers’ Justin Herbert, the Houston Texans’ C.J. Stroud, and the Washington Commanders’ Jayden Daniels all claimed the award after being selected in various draft spots.
Daniels claimed the 2024 award and shares with Mendoza the common bond of having also won the Heisman Trophy in his senior season of college football.
After Love and Mendoza, the prediction prices reveal a close rookie class that includes Carnell Tate, KC Concepion, Jordan Tyson, and Makai Lemon.
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER
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