Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro continues to hold a commanding early lead in the state’s 2026 gubernatorial race, according to a new poll.
A new survey by Susquehanna Polling & Research, conducted September 22–28 among 700 likely voters, shows Shapiro ahead of potential Republican challengers Stacy Garrity and Doug Mastriano in a head-to-head matchup.
Newsweek reached out to Shapiro, Garrity, and Mastriano, for comment via email.
Why It Matters
Pennsylvania is a critical battleground state roughly divided between Democrats and Republicans. It has swung between both parties in recent elections, backing President Donald Trump last November but voting for former President Joe Biden in 2020.
Shapiro, first elected in 2022, remains popular in the state, but Republicans are hoping to make the race competitive. The new poll underscores Shapiro’s strong approval among the state’s voters and suggests he may be favored in the midterms.
What To Know
The polls shows Shapiro ahead of likely Republican challenger Pennsylvania Treasurer Stacy Garrity, 54 percent to 36 percent.
A separate SP&R matchup found Shapiro leading state Senator Doug Mastriano—who lost to him by nearly 15 points in 2022—by a 55 to 37 percent margin.
However, both polls show that a significant number of voters are still undecided. In a Garrity vs. Shapiro matchup, 9 percent were undecided, while 7 percent were undecided in a Shapiro vs. Mastriano matchup. The margin of error was plus or minus 3.7 percent.
Susquehanna Polling & Research said in a post on X that the results suggest “Garrity has plenty of room to grow as she continues to build name awareness.”
Shapiro will be up for reelection next November and has already drawn a challenge from Garrity, who has received the endorsement of the state’s Republican Party and has announced her candidacy. Mastriano, who lost to Shapiro in 2022, has also been floated as a potential candidate but has not officially made a campaign announcement.
But polls have given Shapiro a clear lead over both candidates. A Quinnipiac University poll from September showed Shapiro holding wide leads over potential Republican challengers and enjoying strong approval ratings across the state. Shapiro led Garrity by 16 points (55 percent to 39 percent) and Mastriano by 17 points (56 percent to 39 percent).
Overall, 60 percent of voters viewed Shapiro’s tenure positively, compared to 28 percent who viewed it negatively. Among independents, his approval stood at 66 percent, with only 20 percent disapproving—a key advantage in one of the nation’s most competitive swing states.
Shapiro’s popularity will likely continue to fuel speculation about a potential 2028 presidential run. Democrats view him as a rising star with proven appeal in Pennsylvania—a must-win battleground state—and the poll indicates he would lead Vice President JD Vance by 10 points in a hypothetical matchup.
What People Are Saying
Quinnipiac University Polling Analyst Tim Malloy wrote in a polling memo: “Governor Josh Shapiro clinches an enviable 60 percent job approval and leaves his two potential gubernatorial challengers in the rear-view mirror in a very early look at Pennsylvania’s 2026 gubernatorial race.”
Democratic influencer Harry Sisson wrote on X: “Democratic Governor of PA Josh Shapiro remains wildly popular in his state. People love that he’s focused on hard working Americans. This is how we win people back and beat MAGA.”
What Happens Next
The Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball both classify the race as Likely Democratic.
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