Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro held a lead over potential Republican challengers in the first public poll of the state’s 2026 gubernatorial race.
Newsweek reached out to Shapiro and the two Republicans included in the poll, Treasurer Stacy Garrity and state Senator Doug Mastriano, for comment via email.
Why It Matters
Pennsylvania is a critical battleground state roughly divided between Democrats and Republicans. It has swung between both parties in recent elections, backing President Donald Trump last November but voting for former President Joe Biden in 2020.
Shapiro, first elected in 2022, remains popular in the state, but Republicans are hoping to make the race competitive. The new poll from Quinnipiac University, however, underscores Shapiro’s strong approval among the state’s voters and suggests he may be favored in the midterms.
What To Know
Shapiro will be up for reelection next November and has already drawn a challenge from Garrity, who has received the endorsement of the state’s Republican Party and has announced her candidacy. Mastriano, who lost to Shapiro in 2022, has also been floated as a potential candidate but has not officially made a campaign announcement.
Shapiro defeated Mastriano by about 15 points in 2022 (57 percent to 42 percent), but Garrity is seen as a potentially stronger opponent, having already won statewide—including in 2020, when she eked out a victory despite Democrats winning other statewide races.
The Quinnipiac University poll showed Shapiro up 16 points against Garrity (55 percent to 39 percent), while he led Mastriano by 17 points (56 percent to 39 percent).
Shapiro enjoys a strong approval rating among Pennsylvanians, according to the poll. In total, 60 percent of the state’s voters view his tenure positively, while only 28 percent view him negatively. Among independents, a critical voting group in such a competitive state, 66 percent gave him positive marks, while only 20 percent disapprove of his time in office.
The poll surveyed 1,579 registered voters from September 25 to September 29, 2025, and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.3 percentage points.
Shapiro is viewed as a rising star in the party and is considered a potential 2028 presidential contender by Democrats, who see his strong electoral record in Pennsylvania, a must-win state in presidential elections, as a critical asset against a Republican. The poll found that he would lead Vice President JD Vance by 10 points in the state.
Whether he can win over enough voters in the party’s presidential primary, however, is yet to be seen. Polls suggest that voters are considering other well-known options, such as California Governor Gavin Newsom or former Vice President Kamala Harris, both of whom are also considered potential candidates.
What People Are Saying
University Polling Analyst Tim Malloy wrote in the polling memo: “Governor Josh Shapiro clinches an enviable 60 percent job approval and leaves his two potential gubernatorial challengers in the rear-view mirror in a very early look at Pennsylvania’s 2026 gubernatorial race.”
Democratic influencer Harry Sisson wrote on X: “Democratic Governor of PA Josh Shapiro remains wildly popular in his state. People love that he’s focused on hard working Americans. This is how we win people back and beat MAGA.”
What Happens Next
The Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball both classify the race as Likely Democratic.
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