Republicans were projected to regain the Senate after four years out of power late Tuesday, condemning Chuck Schumer to at least two years as minority leader.
The upper chamber flip began with West Virginia Republican Gov. Jim Justice winning the seat held by outgoing Democrat-turned-independent Joe Manchin, who announced in November 2023 he would not seek re-election.
In Ohio, Democrat Sherrod Brown’s bid for a fourth term was projected to end at the hands of Trump-endorsed GOP businessman Bernie Moreno.
Another three-term Democrat, Sen. Jon Tester, trailed Republican Tim Sheehy by 16 percentage points as of midnight Wednesday.
Republican Senate candidates also had significant leads in the “Blue Wall” states of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin — results which could net the GOP up to 55 seats if they all hold.
Meanwhile, two of the most prominent Republican incumbents — Ted Cruz of Texas and Rick Scott of Florida — were projected to comfortably win their races. A third, Deb Fischer of Nebraska, was pulling away from Democrat-leaning independent Dan Osborn early Wednesday.
Democrats were always underdogs to keep power in the Senate, having to defend 23 of the 34 seats up for grabs Tuesday.
That task got even tougher when the 77-year-old Manchin, a rare Democrat-aligned independent from a deep-red state, declined Schumer’s reported plea to reconsider his decision to exit the Senate and face Mountain State voters one more time.
The first order of business for Republicans is to elect a new conference leader, with Minority Leader Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) bringing a close to his 17-year reign later this month.
A spirited contest is underway between the current Senate GOP No. 2, Minority Whip John Thune (R-SD); his predecessor in that role, Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas); and Sen. Rick Scott (R-Fla.).
All three men have been jockeying behind the scenes for months, seeking to gain an edge with members. Scott previously challenged McConnell, unsuccessfully, following the disappointing 2022 midterm elections.
Although Republicans are now poised to take charge in the Senate when the new Congress is sworn in on Jan. 3, 2025, their newfound power will be limited because they lack a filibuster-proof supermajority to reliably overcome the 60-vote threshold needed to end debate on legislation.
The last time either party had a filibuster-proof majority was in early 2010 when Democrats had 60 seats in the Senate. Republicans came closest to matching that result when they had 59 of the Senate’s 96 seats following the 1920 elections.
Heading into the 2024 cycle, GOP brass starting with National Republican Senatorial Committee Chairman Steve Daines (R-Mont.) put emphasis on candidate quality, fretting that lackluster contenders cost the party opportunities in the 2022 cycle.
That paid off in Daines’ home state of Montana, where he reportedly pleaded with Trump to endorse Sheehy over Rep. Matt Rosendale in the Republican primary to face Tester.
Democrats will have the initiative in 2026, with Republicans defending at least 19 of the 33 seats up for grabs.
Among the GOP incumbents expected to face tough races are Dan Sullivan of Alaska, Joni Ernst of Iowa, Susan Collins of Maine and Thom Tillis of North Carolina.
Cornyn, the possible new Senate GOP leader, will also be up for re-election that year.
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