Russia has accused the U.K. of plotting a sabotage operation in a move that shows Moscow is setting the conditions for a conflict with NATO, according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
That assessment by the Washington, D.C., think tank follows claims by Russia’s military intelligence (SVR) that London is planning an attack on a Ukrainian or foreign civilian vessel to be blamed on China for supporting Vladimir Putin’s full-scale invasion.
The think tank says Russia appears to be “accelerating the informational and psychological condition setting phase—’Phase 0’—of its campaign to prepare for a possible NATO-Russia war.”
Newsweek has contacted the U.K. Foreign Office for comment.
Why It Matters
A spate of drones entering NATO airspace promoted the alliance to accuse Russia of stepping up hybrid attacks to test its resolve and warnings from the West about Moscow’s aggressive intentions beyond Ukraine.
Kremlin propagandists have already framed the invasion of Ukraine as a war between Moscow and NATO but the ISW analysis suggests a more direct conflict is on the cards.
What To Know
Russian intelligence said in a statement that the U.K. was planning for a group of pro-Ukrainian Russians fighting for Ukraine to attack a Ukrainian Navy ship or a foreign civilian vessel in a European port.
Russia’s SVR said saboteurs would be equipped with Chinese-made underwater equipment and that the U.K. would say they were acting on orders from Moscow and blame Beijing for its backing of Putin.
The SVR’s claim, made on Monday without providing evidence, follows similar false flag claims targeting European states, such as Poland, Moldova and Serbia, which the ISW said showed a “concerted pattern of activity.”
The aim was to set the physical and psychological conditions for future conflict and follows overt and covert attacks against NATO states, such as sabotage missions, electronic warfare (EW) interference, GPS jamming, and arson.
The think tank said there is no firm timeline for the Kremlin’s campaign against the West nor any evidence of a military buildup.
However, it noted longer-term plans that NATO members say show Moscow’s intentions, such as the restructuring of military districts on its western border and the buildup of military bases on the border with Finland.
Hybrid attacks and false flag claims aim to create fear in Europe and fragment NATO’s resolve as Moscow seeks concessions in its war against Ukraine, the ISW added.
What People Are Saying
Russia’s SVR said in a statement: “London is furious that many years of British efforts to achieve the ‘strategic defeat’ of Russia and turn it into a pariah country are failing.
It added: “The Cabinet of (Keir) Starmer and his special services are preparing to respond to Russian successes in the Ukrainian theater of operations with another heinous provocation.”
The Institute for the Study of War said on Monday: “The Kremlin is setting conditions to justify and rally public support for any possible future Russian aggression against NATO.
It added: “Russia appears to be accelerating the informational and psychological condition setting phase—’Phase 0’—of its campaign to prepare for a possible NATO-Russia war.”
What Happens Next
European officials continue to report drone sightings in European airspace, with the devices spotted over Gardermoen International Airport in Oslo, Norway overnight Sunday among the latest incidents that have spurred NATO members to propose a drone wall to counter the threat posed by Moscow.
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