Would you take the leap to buy a house amid a trade war?
For some, experts suggest that the current market offers opportunities for someone looking to move up their buying plans and lock in right away — but they say it’s important to gauge the risk versus the rewards.
“If you go back over the last 40 years, there are very rare situations where home prices aren’t rising in our major cities in this country,” said Phil Soper, CEO of Royal LePage.
“We’re in one now, but how long it lasts is anybody’s guess.”
A recent report by the Royal Bank of Canada said Canada’s housing market is “cracking” under the weight of U.S. President Donald Trump’s trade war, with housing resales down in markets across the country.
Home sale figures from March appear to back this up.
According to the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA), the sale of homes fell 9.3 per cent in March compared with this time last year. The national average home price in Canada was $678,331 in March 2025, down 3.7 per cent from March 2024.
More data is expected when CREA releases the national sales figures for April on Thursday.
A long streak of interest rates cuts by the Bank of Canada means that anyone looking to lock in on a mortgage right now can get in on a relatively lower rate.
According to Ratehub.ca, you can get a five-year fixed mortgage at a lending rate of 3.84 per cent and a five-year variable mortgage at a rate of 3.95 per cent – both below the long-term average.
“Mortgage rates right now are roughly 200 basis points lower than where they were at their peak in late 2023 and early 2024,” said Penelope Graham, mortgage expert at Ratehub.
“Mortgage rates really can make or break your budget,” she said.
After a weaker than expected spring housing market, which saw fears over Trump’s trade war keeping buyers hesitant, Canada has a lot of unsold homes going into the summer.
According to CREA’s report for March, there is more than five months’ worth of inventory on the market. Simply put, this means that if current market conditions persist, it would take over five months to sell every single home listed for sale in Canada.
Get daily National news
Get the day’s top news, political, economic, and current affairs headlines, delivered to your inbox once a day.
“That is a level that we haven’t seen in terms of inventory since the early months of COVID,” Graham said.
For anyone brave enough to jump into the market in the middle of a trade war, there are benefits to be made, experts said.
“There’s a lot of homes on the market and not a lot of buyers vying for them. If you are a buyer in today’s market, you don’t have to face very much competition. The likelihood of entering into a bidding war is pretty low,” said Clay Jarvis, mortgage expert at NerdWallet Canada.
Buyers can also insist on pre-purchase conditions, like a third-party inspection or get the price of future repairs knocked off the selling price.
“You can say, ‘I want X number of dollars taken off the purchase price because I foresee I’m going to have to make this kind of repair to replace the roof or the furnace,’” Graham said.
“When you’re in a hot seller’s market, it’s kind of take-it-or-leave-it,” she said.
There are also more homes to consider in the current market.
“You’ve got lots to choose from, both in the detached single-family market and the condo market,” she said.
The current market gives a bit more bargaining power to buyers over sellers, Jarvis said, but there’s no guarantee that it will last.
“Whether that’s going to be the same case in six months or 12 months from now, nobody can really say,” he said.
Many buyers are waiting for the uncertainty around tariffs to end before jumping in.
“The risk of hanging around too long, waiting for things to unquote, is that there is a lot of pent-up demand in this country, in particular in southern Ontario. And if it gets released in a hurry, things can switch to a tight market with multiple offers being the norm very quickly,” he said.
The greater the reward, the greater the risk in the housing market.
For many Canadians, the threat of losing their job to the effects of Trump’s trade war is a very real one.
“If you’re somebody who is employed in one of those tariff-sensitive industries, that’s likely very top of mind for you, and you’re likely not going to be making a large financial decision,” Graham said.
Jarvis recommends planning out savings for the next three to five years.
“If you are unsure about your job prospects today, tomorrow, next year, I think it’s really difficult to convince yourself to move forward with the mortgage, even if you find a home or a mortgage rate that makes it more affordable for you,” he said.
“If you don’t have significant savings on hand (and are) somebody who might have a precarious employment situation, it’s not necessarily the best market to be speculative in,” Graham said.
Anybody who is “very secure in their employment, who doesn’t see a dip in their income over the next three to five years” could consider moving up their timeline, Jarvis said.
“If you have that sort of confidence, I think that would allow you to get into the market today,” he said.
Graham said anyone who already has a solid amount saved could benefit from jumping in under current market conditions, while many without those savings should be cautious.
“Somebody who has a savings nest egg (should consider moving early), so you’re not jumping off with zero savings, unless you’ve got generational wealth backing you up,” she said.
Graham recommends realistically calculating how much you can save for your down payment in a year or two. For some, it might be enough to offset any potential increase in mortgage rates. For others, that may not be worth the wait.
“Even if you saved for that extra year, if mortgage rates have increased over that timeline, it can actually reduce the amount of mortgage that you’re going to qualify for,” she said.
Read the full article here
