Oracle’s (NYSE:ORCL) earnings report is set to be released on Wednesday, June 11, 2025. Historically, Oracle’s stock has experienced negative one-day returns following earnings announcements. In the last five years, the stock has declined in 60% of occurrences, with a median drop of 4.4% and a maximum one-day decrease of 13.5%.
For traders focused on events, recognizing these historical trends can provide a strategic advantage. There are two main strategies to consider:
- Pre-earnings positioning: Assess the historical probabilities and take a position prior to the earnings announcement.
- Post-earnings positioning: Investigate the link between immediate and medium-term returns after earnings are released, then adjust your stance accordingly.
Analysts estimate Oracle’s earnings to be $1.64 per share on revenue of $15.58 billion. This marks an increase from the same quarter last year, when earnings stood at $1.63 per share with sales of $14.29 billion. This anticipated growth is primarily due to the rising adoption of Oracle’s cloud services, especially related to its achievements in generative AI workloads.
Focusing on the fundamentals, Oracle currently has a market capitalization of $471 billion. Over the past twelve months, the company brought in $56 billion in revenue, yielding operating profits of $18 billion and a net profit of $12 billion. For those seeking potential upside with reduced volatility compared to individual stocks, the Trefis High Quality portfolio offers an alternative — it has outperformed the S&P 500 and has realized returns exceeding 91% since its inception. Additionally, see – 35% Downside For DocuSign Stock?
See earnings reaction history of all stocks
Oracle’s Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return
Here are some insights on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:
- There are 20 earnings data points recorded over the last five years, with 8 positive and 12 negative one-day (1D) returns noted. Overall, positive 1D returns occurred approximately 40% of the time.
- This percentage rises to 42% if we examine data for the last 3 years instead of 5.
- The median of the 8 positive returns is 11%, with the median of the 12 negative returns at -4.4%
Additional information regarding observed 5-Day (5D) and 21-Day (21D) returns post earnings is summarized alongside the statistics in the table below.
Correlation Between 1D, 5D, and 21D Historical Returns
A relatively less risky strategy (although it may not be effective if the correlation is low) involves understanding the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post earnings, identifying a pair with the strongest correlation, and executing the appropriate trade. For instance, if 1D and 5D demonstrate the highest correlation, a trader may position themselves “long” for the next 5 days if the 1D post-earnings return is positive. Below is some correlation data based on 5-year and more recent 3-year history. The correlation 1D_5D refers to the correlation between 1D post-earnings returns and subsequent 5D returns.
Is There Any Correlation With Peer Earnings?
Occasionally, the performance of peers can influence the stock reaction following earnings. Indeed, the pricing effects may begin even before earnings are announced. Below is some historical data comparing Oracle’s past post-earnings performance with the stock performance of peers that reported earnings immediately prior to Oracle. For a fair comparison, peer stock returns also illustrate post-earnings one-day (1D) returns.
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