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It has only been three games since Todd Downing was promoted to offensive coordinator, but in those three games, Hall has hit this prop in two of them, with 18 and 16 carries in those games. The one game he went under was against the Steelers, who have a very good run defense.
He also played in 87, 82 and 74 percent of snaps in these three games after averaging a snap rate in the low 70s before the coaching change.
The Texans are only allowing the ninth-fewest rushing yards per game on the eighth-lowest yards per carry, but looking deeper than that shows some matchup advantages in favor of Hall tonight.
One area in which the Texans really struggle is bringing runners down after contact. They are currently allowing the most yards after contact per attempt, and the third-highest percentage of rushing yards against them have come after contact.
They are currently allowing the second-lowest adjusted yards before contact per attempt, but, because of yards after contact issues, they are not a top-five rushing defense. The Jets are not a great rushing team overall, but any success they have had running the ball is because Hall is so good at breaking tackles and getting yards after contact.
Hall has had 69.9 percent of his yards come after contact this season, and he is used to needing to create everything on his own. He has a good game tonight.
Breece Hall over 67.5 rushing yards (-113): 1 Unit
Joe Mixon o3.5 Receptions (+115) Fanatics
This game could end up being a mess for the Texans offense, who are now missing Stefon Diggs. Their offense had already been struggling without Nico Collins, and the Jets have a decent pass defense.
The common logic would say to take Joe Mixon’s rushing props, but you have to imagine the Jets are going to put Sauce Gardner on Tank Dell, then do everything in their power to stop the Texans from running the ball to force someone else to beat them in the receiving game.
So, what we ended up settling on for this one is Joe Mixon and his receptions prop, as he is a good receiver, too.
He has been great this year on the ground, but he also has receiving chops. Generally, teams that have a lot of vacated targets see the biggest target increase for their running back as opposed to any of the backup receivers or tight ends.
The Jets defense has admittedly been good at defending running backs in the passing game, but this is less a play on the matchup and more a play on Mixon getting more receiving work than rushing work.
The only game he caught four passes was last Sunday, which just so happened to be the game when Diggs got hurt. He also had six targets last game, which is the most he has had all season.
It is tough to have faith in any pass catcher for the Texans, and the logic of Stroud dumping it off to Mixon as opposed to trying to force targets to anybody else is sound, so we’ll ride with Mixon to get to four receptions to cash out this plus-money banger.
Joe Mixon over 3.5 receptions (+115): 1 Unit
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