We made it, friends.
The craziest and most chaotic sports tournament of the year (sorry, World Cup) is about to begin for both women and men, as March Madness kicks off next week.
The men’s bracket has just been unveiled, and we have four regions full of favorites, underdogs, and new heroes to be discovered over the next three weeks of play from across the United States.
But it’s more than just the national title up for grabs. As the colleges fight tooth and nail for the trophy, so are you, as you fill out your bracket to defeat your friends who become foes in March.
Before you fill out your bracket, finding that special underdog who can win their first round game is paramount. While the 12 seed beating the No. 5 is all the rage over the past decade, knowing which 13 seed has the best chance to win in their opening game might be even more important.
Here’s the outlook on the No. 4 vs. No. 13 matchups, and which heavy favorite has the best chance of being toppled next week.
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East Region: 4. Kansas vs. 13. Cal Baptist
Cal Baptist has one of the worst offenses you’ll see in the tournament, but they make up for it with an elite defense. While Darryn Peterson and the Jayhawks have been hit or miss, they stack up well against their opening round adversary more than most long shots.
South Region: 4. Nebraska vs. 13. Troy
It’s easy to see “Nebraska” and think they’re going to be upset because it’s a football school in March Madness. I understand. It doesn’t really compute seeing the Cornhuskers as a top seed in basketball, but they’ve earned it.
While they aren’t nearly as strong as they were at the start of the campaign, the advanced analytics see this as a massive blowout. Troy, per KenPom, has below-average offense and defense. Just take Nebraska.
West Region: 4. Arkansas vs. 13. Hawaii
Hawaii is renowned for its no-help defense, which means they don’t double or provide extra assistance while defending. It’s worked out so far, giving them a top 45 defense in the country, per KenPom.
But Arkansas has one of the best and most explosive players in the country in Darius Acuff Jr., who just destroyed much stronger defenses than Hawaii’s en route to an SEC tournament title.
Bad matchup for the Rainbow Warriors.
Midwest Region: 4. Alabama vs. 13. Hofstra
It’s a battle of styles between Alabama and Hofstra. The Crimson Tide are one of the fastest teams in basketball, while Hofstra is one of the slowest. Alabama hasn’t been the most consistent team down the stretch and should be hefty favorites, but there is an outside chance that Hofstra can muck it up enough to keep this close.
Ranking Upset Potential:
- Hofstra
- Cal Baptist
- Hawaii
- Troy
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