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The start of training camp has prompted a flurry of big extensions. But the most impactful moves, the ones most likely to affect the bottom line this season, were made months ago. Given some time to examine free agency, here are my five riskiest deals and five best bets of the offseason.
Riskiest Deals
Contract terms: 3 years, $67.5 million ($45 million guaranteed)
Despite the familiarity between general manager Jon-Eric Sullivan, head coach Jeff Hafley and Willis from their time together in Green Bay, the Dolphins might have drastically overpaid a fifth-year signal-caller with only six pro starts to his name. The spectacular flashes with the Packers have given off some franchise quarterback vibes, but recreating that magic in South Florida could be a challenge for a team in the midst of a rebuild.
With Willis also struggling during his initial stint as a QB1 with the Tennessee Titans, the hefty contract and lofty expectations could doom this marriage before it starts. While no one expects the marquee free agent to play like Dan Marino in Miami, the Hall of Fame inductee’s performance and production have set the standard for a city and franchise that demands a lot from its starting QB.
Contract terms: 4 years, $114 million ($84 million guaranteed)
It is rare for a WR2 to seamlessly transition to the WR1 role. Pierce is attempting to defy the odds after inking a lucrative extension to be the No. 1 option in the Colts’ passing game. Although the fifth-year pro has averaged 20-plus yards per catch in each of the past two seasons, the speedster must put up monster numbers against defenses that will be focused on limiting his impact with “traveling” corners and loaded zones.
Considering the daunting challenge Pierce faces as an unproven go-to receiver, all while taking on the opponent’s top corner and creative tactics, the Colts might experience some buyer’s remorse if their primary pass-catcher fails to dominate on the perimeter in his new role.
Contract terms: 3 years, $42 million ($25 million guaranteed)
The Panthers signed the big-play specialist to a multiyear deal after watching him record five interceptions, one fumble recovery, seven pass breakups, 10 quarterback hits and 81 tackles in 2025 with the Jaguars. Lloyd’s spectacular final season in Jacksonville overshadowed a topsy-turvy tenure that resulted in the former first-rounder being benched multiple times and the team declining his fifth-year option before his breakout season. While a new scheme and coaching staff found a way to unlock his talents, the fifth-year pro must make a similar transition in Carolina while playing up to lofty expectations and a big contract.
With Lloyd earning Pro Bowl honors in 2025 as a part-time player — he typically came off the field on third downs with the Jaguars — the Panthers are hoping that more playing time will result in more splash plays. They’ll need them to justify this deal.
Contract terms: 4 years, $96 million ($68 million guaranteed)
The Commanders’ need for a consistent pass rush prompted general manager Adam Peters and head coach Dan Quinn to gamble on a “boom-or-bust” sack artist with 30.5 career sacks over five seasons. Although he has amassed 22.5 sacks since 2023, Oweh entered the league as a developmental player with a limited toolbox, leading to some pass rushing droughts that impacted his stat line, particularly his final five games in Baltimore, where he failed to register a sack.
With former Chargers DC Jesse Minter finding various ways to create sack chances for Oweh through clever scheming during a partial season in L.A., the Commanders’ marquee free agent will need defensive coordinator Daronte Jones to tap into his exotic pressures to help the sixth-year pro take advantage of winnable matchups on the edges.
Contract terms: 3 years, $58 million ($42 million guaranteed)
The Titans’ porous pass defense desperately needed a top-notch cover corner to improve under the direction of new head coach/defensive playcaller Robert Saleh. Taylor was a hot commodity on the free-agent market after enjoying a banner year as the New Orleans Saints’ slot corner; the fifth-year pro is expected to handle the CB1 role in Tennessee, aligning primarily on the outside to neutralize opposing No. 1 receivers. Although the Titans will utilize him occasionally at nickel, the 6-foot-1, 199-pound Taylor will have a chance to show the football world that he can go toe-to-toe with the premier playmakers in the game.
Considering the talented pass-catchers within the division alone (see: the Texans’ Nico Collins, the Colts’ Alec Pierce and the Jaguars’ Brian Thomas Jr. and Parker Washington), the upgrade in competition will quickly reveal if Taylor is the man for the job as a newly minted $20 million corner.
Best Bets
Contract terms: 1 year, $1.3 million (zero guaranteed)
The Vikings were able to secure the services of a former No. 1 overall pick with an Offensive Rookie of the Year award (2019) and a pair of Pro Bowl berths on his résumé for the veteran’s minimum. Although the end of Murray’s tenure in Arizona raises some concerns about his game and leadership skills, the veteran is the most talented quarterback that Vikings head coach Kevin O’Connell has worked with in Minnesota, potentially leading to the most dynamic and explosive offense yet during KOC’s tenure.
With Murray still in his prime and fueled by the skeptics dismissing his return to prominence as a QB1, the diminutive playmaker can rewrite the narrative surrounding his name with a bounce-back performance in 2026.
Contract terms: 1 year, $12 million ($12 million guaranteed)
The rangy cornerback joins a defensive backfield loaded with All-Pro-caliber playmakers in Quinyon Mitchell and Cooper DeJean. Woolen adds a dimension to the unit with his size, length and speed, making him nearly impossible to throw over on the perimeter. As defensive coordinator Vic Fangio tweaks his scheme to accommodate the newcomer’s talents as a sticky man-to-man defender, the Eagles’ man-match scheme will frustrate passers and playmakers unable to find room in the passing game.
Moreover, the marriage between Woolen and a scheme that is perfectly suited to his talents will make his contract look like the best bargain on the market when we review the offseason transactions at season’s end.
Contract terms: 2 years, $20 million ($13.5 million guaranteed)
After watching C.J. Stroud struggle behind a makeshift offensive line that could not keep defenders out of the backfield, the Texans invested heavily in the trenches with free-agent signees and draft picks coming on board throughout the offseason. Smith’s signing did not garner major headlines, but the former division rival will provide much-needed protection on Stroud’s frontside, while blowing holes open for David Montgomery and Co. at the line of scrimmage.
If the veteran can avoid the injury bug that sidetracked him in 2023 and 2024, Smith’s arrival on a bargain-basement deal could help stabilize an offense that for the past two years has kept the Texans, with their star-studded defense, from being serious Super Bowl contenders.
Contract terms: 3 years, $43.05 million ($28.7 million guaranteed)
Ignore the chatter from the running back haters who have diminished the value of RB1s around the league, and look at how Walker’s arrival will make it easier for Patrick Mahomes to reclaim his crown as the NFL’s undisputed QB1. The lack of an efficient and explosive running game allowed defenses to sit in various two-high shells to take away the deep ball and force the two-time MVP into a “dink-and-dunk” game that featured few big plays.
With Walker flashing “take over the game” potential as a lead runner during the Seahawks’ title run, defensive coordinators must pay closer attention to the Chiefs’ running game or run the risk of Andy Reid controlling the action with a creative ground attack that punishes opponents for aligning in “light boxes” with smaller defenders all over the field. Although the reigning Super Bowl MVP’s hefty price tag created a stir in the marketplace, Walker’s impact in Kansas City could actually help restore the value of running backs in the minds of team builders across the league.
Contract terms: 3 years, $30 million ($20 million guaranteed)
The Chargers needed to improve the frontline to maximize Justin Herbert’s potential as a pocket playmaker. After watching the superstar QB take a beating throughout 2025, the club acquired an underrated pivot to fill a hole created by Bradley Bozeman’s surprise retirement. Although Biadasz is not a blue-chip talent, he adds some physicality, toughness and competitiveness to an offensive line that was bullied at times last season.
Moreover, he gives Herbert an experienced “trench warrior” with the identification and communication skills to handle the protections and adjustments at the line of scrimmage. Given how the Chargers desperately needed help at the point of attack, adding Biadasz should help them remain a viable contender this season.
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