Tropical Storm Cosme is expected to become a hurricane later today, and so far, it looks like the storm system will remain offshore, according to spaghetti computer models.
AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Tom Kines told Newsweek that Cosme is expected to weaken quickly after becoming a hurricane.
Why It Matters
Cosme is the third named tropical system to form during the Eastern Pacific hurricane season, which began May 15. The season runs through November 30. The first storm, Tropical Storm Alvin, formed in late May. The second, Hurricane Barbara, formed over the weekend.
Since Cosme will likely remain offshore, National Hurricane Center (NHC) experts aren’t expecting any hazards to nearby land masses. Cosme is the third tropical storm to form in the 2025 Eastern Pacific season.
What to Know
Cosme formed on Sunday. As of the NHC’s most recent update, the storm has maximum sustained wind speeds of 65 mph and is expected to strengthen into a hurricane on Monday.
Most spaghetti models, or computer models illustrating potential tropical cyclone paths with tangled lines of data, show Cosme moving northwest further into the Pacific Ocean.
The NHC path shows the storm taking a northern turn to trek closer to Mexico before it weakens into a tropical depression southwest of Baja California by Thursday morning.
If the storm becomes a hurricane later on Monday, NHC forecasters anticipate it will remain at hurricane strength into Tuesday morning before weakening into a tropical storm once more.
“Cosme is moving toward the west-northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue today. A turn toward the north with a [decrease] in forward speed is expected tonight, followed by a faster north-northeast motion Tuesday through Wednesday,” the NHC said in a public advisory.
Tropical-storm-force winds can be felt up to 60 miles from Cosme’s center. Kines said “it doesn’t look like” Cosme will cause any U.S. impacts, as the storm won’t be active for long enough to do so.
What People Are Saying
Kines told Newsweek: “Cosme will probably stay a hurricane for a good chunk of today, but then I think this evening and overnight it fades back into a tropical storm. Probably sometime Wednesday or Wednesday night, it becomes a depression and is no longer noteworthy.”
NHC in a public advisory: “Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is forecast, and Cosme is expected to become a hurricane later today. Rapid weakening is expected Tuesday night and Wednesday.”
What Happens Next
The NHC will release the next advisory about Tropical Storm Cosme at 2 p.m. MST.
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