President Donald Trump’s approval rating has sunk to a new second-term low as the Iran war drags on, according to polling averages tracked by Nate Silver’s Silver Bulletin.
White House spokesman Davis Ingle told Newsweek in an emailed statement: “The ultimate poll was November 5, 2024, when nearly 80 million Americans overwhelmingly elected President Trump to deliver on his popular and common-sense agenda.”
Why It Matters
Trump returned to office promising strength abroad and stability at home, but the Iran war has unfolded without the domestic political lift presidents often receive at the start of military conflicts.
With the 2026 midterms approaching, sustained voter unease could shape the broader electoral map.
What To Know
Nearly a month after the Iran war began, public opinion has hardened rather than rallied, according to new analysis from the Silver Bulletin, the polling website run by Nate Silver.
The project is tracking both Trump’s overall approval rating and Americans’ views of the conflict itself, updating its averages daily as new surveys are released.
Writing Wednesday, senior elections analyst Eli McKown-Dawson said Trump had failed to receive the typical “rally-around-the-flag” bump when the fighting started.
Instead, Trump’s net approval rating has fallen to a second-term low of about minus 16.7 in the Silver Bulletin average.
To better understand attitudes toward the conflict, the site launched a dedicated Iran War polling average.
That data shows the war has been unpopular from the outset, with support quickly settling at roughly 40 percent.
Opposition, however, has continued to rise, increasing from about 48 percent at the start of the conflict to around 52 percent by late March.
McKown-Dawson noted that views had remained relatively stable among Trump’s core supporters, while resistance has grown more pronounced across the broader electorate.
Meanwhile, the conflict itself shows little sign of winding down.
The Trump administration has sent Iran a 15‑point peace plan, though officials have not indicated whether talks are progressing.
At the same time, additional U.S. troops continue to deploy to the Middle East.
Earlier on March 25, Nate Silver shared a screenshot of his approval tracker on X showing Trump’s net approval rating at minus 16.6.
The image also displayed regular gas prices at $3.99 a gallon, highlighting the economic pressures unfolding alongside the overseas conflict.
How Silver’s Tracker Works
Silver’s approval tracker blends all publicly available polls, whether conducted among adults, registered voters, or likely voters.
When multiple versions of a survey exist, the model prefers samples of all adults.
Each poll is weighted based on several factors, including the pollster’s rating, sample size, how recently the survey was conducted, and how frequently that pollster releases data.
The tracker also adjusts for consistent “house effects,” accounting for pollsters that tend to lean systematically more positive or negative than others.
What Do Other Trackers Show?
Other polling aggregates point in a similar direction, though with some variation.
RealClear Polling’s average showed Trump with 41.1 percent approval and 56.7 percent disapproval, a net rating of minus 15.6 at the time of writing.
CNN’s poll of polls placed Trump lower, with 30 percent approval versus 60 percent disapproval, yielding a net rating of minus 22.
The New York Times polling average showed 40 percent approval and 56 percent disapproval, for a net rating of minus 16.
What People Are Saying
McKown-Dawson wrote: “Donald Trump didn’t see the usual ‘rally-around-the-flag’ boost to his approval ratings when the war started, and now, his net approval rating in our average is at a second-term low of -16.7.”
White House spokesman Davis Ingle told Newsweek in an emailed statement: “The ultimate poll was November 5, 2024, when nearly 80 million Americans overwhelmingly elected President Trump to deliver on his popular and common-sense agenda.
“The president has already made historic progress not only in America, but around the world. It is not surprising that President Trump remains the most dominant figure in American politics.”
A White House official previously told Newsweek: “Polling shows President Trump’s decision to launch Operation Epic Fury has Americans’ support—with MAGA and Republicans strongly supporting it.
“Despite some online commentators with large followings publicly disagreeing with the president’s decision—and many legacy media outlets eagerly highlighting their comments to try and sow division—the MAGA base is not wavering one bit.”
Trump said last week: “When this is over, oil prices are going to go down very, very rapidly. So is inflation. So is everything else.
“But frankly, much more important than short-term or even long-term oil prices: You cannot let the most violent, vicious country in the last 50 years have a nuclear weapon.”
What Happens Next
Polling averages will continue to update as the Iran war evolves and new surveys are released.
With military, economic, and political pressures converging, Trump’s standing with voters is likely to remain closely tied to developments abroad and the early maneuvering ahead of the 2026 midterm elections.
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