Trump’s Approval Rating Hits Second-Term Low With Most Accurate Pollster

President Donald Trump’s approval rating has fallen to a new low, according to the nation’s most accurate pollster.

The latest AtlasIntel survey, conducted between May 21-27 among 3,469 adults, shows that Trump’s approval rating has fallen to 45 percent, while 54 percent disapprove.

That is the lowest rating of his second term so far. In previous AtlasIntel polls, his approval ranged between 46 and 50 percent, while his disapproval ranged between 49 and 52 percent.

The poll had a margin of error of +/- 2 percentage points.

Why It Matters

AtlasIntel was ranked the most accurate polling company of the 2024 election by survey veteran Nate Silver and was previously named the most accurate pollster of the 2020 election by 538.

Recent surveys had shown Trump’s approval rating creeping back up after a period of decline following the introduction of his “Liberation Day” tariffs in April, which saw the stock market fall.

But polls published in recent days show a more complicated picture of Trump’s support.

What To Know

Trump’s declining approval rating comes as the number of Americans who rate his overall performance as “Excellent” or “Good” has dropped from 46 percent in February to just 39 percent in May, according to AtlasIntel.

Over the same period, those who rate his performance as “Poor” or “Very Poor” has climbed from 47 percent to 54 percent, indicating a clear erosion of support as the year has progressed.

The decline in overall approval is mirrored in public assessments of Trump’s handling of major national issues. On immigration—long one of Trump’s hallmark concerns—53 percent of respondents now say his performance is poor, compared to just 47 percent who view it positively.

Similarly, in the realm of the U.S. economy, once a strength for Trump, only 42 percent now give him positive marks, while 54 percent rate his performance as poor or terrible. This marks a notable decline from April, when economic approval briefly ticked up.

Trump fares even worse on issues like health care and the national debt. Only 38 percent of Americans believe he is handling health care well, while 53 percent disapprove. On the national debt, a significant gap remains, with just 42 percent approving and 54 percent disapproving.

His approach to safeguarding democracy has also drawn criticism, with a 6-point deficit between positive (47 percent) and negative (53 percent) ratings, though this reflects a slight improvement from April.

Even in areas like China–U.S. competition, where Trump previously maintained relatively balanced support, sentiment has tilted more negatively. As of May, 53 percent disapprove of his handling of the issue, compared to 45 percent who approve.

But The AtlasIntel survey breaks from other recent polls, which have shown Trump’s approval ratings ticking up in recent weeks after a period of decline following the introduction of his “Liberation Day” tariffs in April. The policy move rattled markets, prompting a sharp sell-off before an eventual recovery and a pause on the tariffs by the administration.

Since then, economic anxiety has died down. Consumer confidence saw a surprising increase in May. The Conference Board reported a rise to 98, much higher than both the expected 87.1 and April’s 86 reading. It was the biggest one-month jump in more than a year.

At the same time, Trump’s general approval ratings are on the rebound. Newsweek’s tracker currently shows that 47 percent approve of Trump’s job performance, while 50 percent disapprove. Earlier this month, his approval rating stood at 44 percent, while his disapproval rate was firmly in the 50s.

Others have shown the same trend. The latest Insider Advantage poll, conducted May 17-19 among 1,000 likely voters, gave Trump a net approval rating of +11 points, with 55 percent approving and 44 percent disapproving. That was up from a net approval rating of +2 points in early May, when 46 percent approved and 44 percent disapproved.

And in the latest McLaughlin and Associates poll, conducted between May 21-26 among 1,000 voters, Trump’s approval rating stood at 51 percent, up from 48 percent in an April poll, while hid disapproval stood at 44 percent, down from 52 percent previously.

However, the overarching trend in the polls is one of stability, with some showing that his ratings have not substantially changed beyond a 1- or 2-point dip—within the margin of error—or have not changed at all.

That includes the most recent Quantus Insights poll, conducted May 18-20, which showed Trump’s approval rating at 48 percent, while 48 percent disapproved. That is unchanged from a poll conducted earlier in May, and an April poll also showed his approval rating stood at 48 percent, while his disapproval rating at 50 percent.

Meanwhile, an American Research Group poll, conducted March 17-20 among 1,100 adults, put Trump’s approval rating at 41 percent, down just 2 points from April. His disapproval grew from 53 percent to 55 percent.

And the latest Civiqs poll, conducted May 17-20 among 1,018 registered voters, put Trump’s approval up by 1 point, and his disapproval down by 1 point. The same trend occurred in the latest YouGov/Economist poll, conducted May 23-26 among 1,660 adults, which put his approval at 44 percent and disapproval at 52 percent.

The latest YouGov/Yahoo poll, conducted May 22-27 among 1,560 adults, put Trump’s approval down 1 point to 41 percent and his disapproval up 1 point to 54 percent.

In Morning Consult’s latest survey, conducted May 23-25 among 2,237 registered voters, Trump’s approval rating was unchanged at 48 percent while his disapproval was up 1 point to 51 percent. And in the latest RMG Research/Napolitan News survey, conducted May 20-19 among 3,000 registered voters, Trump’s approval was up 1 point to 49 percent, while his disapproval was unchanged at 50 percent.

How Trump’s Approval Rating Compares to First Term

The RealClearPolitics tracker shows that on May 31, 2017, Trump’s approval rating was 40 percent, while his disapproval rating was 54 percent. This gave him a net approval rating of -14 points, making Trump more popular now than at the same point in his first stint in the Oval Office.

How Trump’s Approval Rating Compares to Biden’s

Trump’s 47 percent approval rating is lower than that of former President Joe Biden at the same point in his presidency. On May 31, 2021, Biden stood at 54 percent, with a disapproval rating of 42 percent, according to RealClearPolitics.

While Trump began his second term with his highest approval rating, according to Gallup’s first poll of Trump’s second term, conducted between January 21 and 27, he was still less popular than any president since 1953 at the start of a term and the only one to begin with a sub-50 percent approval rating. Gallup said Biden started his first term with a 57 percent approval rating.

According to data compiled from Gallup by The American Presidency Project, Trump ranks far below other modern-day presidents after 100 days, dating to Dwight Eisenhower, who had an approval rating of 73 percent.

Others with higher approval ratings at the 100-day mark include John F. Kennedy, 83 percent; Richard Nixon, 62 percent; Jimmy Carter, 63 percent; Ronald Reagan, 68 percent; George H.W. Bush, 56 percent; Bill Clinton, 55 percent; George W. Bush, 62 percent; and Barack Obama, 65 percent.

What Happens Next

Trump’s approval rating could fluctuate in the coming weeks, depending on the outcome of key events, including critical negotiations in the Russia-Ukraine war, the evolving tariff situation and concerns about a recession.