For instance, Kurlantzick said it would be “counterproductive” for the US to punish the Philippines or Thailand – two countries navigating “genuine Chinese pressure” – for spending too little on defence.
“At precisely the moment Washington is asking Asian partners to invest more in collective defence, its trade and economic policy is steadily eroding the trust and goodwill that make those partnerships worth having in the first place,” he said.
“Beijing has wasted no time exploiting the opening, with Chinese leadership actively courting ASEAN nations and offering deeper economic integration as the stable, predictable alternative to an increasingly volatile Washington.”
Aisha Kusumasomantri, a defence researcher at the Jakarta-based Indo Pacific Strategic Intelligence think tank, said the US should try to “sway” Southeast Asian allies into supporting its burden-sharing policy instead of “antagonising” them.
“I think it is important for the US to think of the Asia-Pacific and Southeast Asia as a battleground for influence,” she told CNA, urging Washington not to impose increasingly punitive measures as Beijing steps up “excellent” public diplomacy in the region.
Lowy Institute’s Marston does not see the US walking away from the region anytime soon, pointing to Washington’s alliance with Manila as being “far too important” for US force projection in Asia.
“I think Southeast Asian countries have other assets that they bring to the table to preclude punishment by the US, including critical minerals and access for the US military in the case of Indonesia for example,” he said.
“I expect we’ll see more states seek to leverage comparative advantages in one sector to avoid US coercion or punishment in others.”
HOW SOUTHEAST ASIA COULD RESPOND
Despite China’s rise, the US remains a “consequential power” in the region, said RSIS’ Faizal.
“Countries that cannot meet US expectations on defence spending might seek to reassure the Americans by deepening bilateral cooperation in other aspects of defence or other non-military areas,” he said.
And as China watches ASEAN states navigate US demands, Faizal feels these countries would try to manage US-China pressures by deepening relations with middle powers such as Türkiye, India, Japan and Australia.
“The main goal of this is to manage the risk of being pressured by either the US or China,” he added.
With that said, Kurlantzick warned of a “real risk” that the US pressure produces an unintended effect: Driving smaller nations closer to the very country the US is trying to push them away from.
“Already, China’s favourables in the region now top those of the US, and the Iran war has hurt US public opinion much more,” he said.
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