Familiar Democrats in Texas have the best chance of unseating Republicans in 2026, as the economy becomes a more pressing issue statewide than border security, according to a statewide survey.
Why It Matters
Democrats have repeatedly attempted to make headway in major Texas statewide elections, with former Representative Beto O’Rourke coming within two percentage points of defeating Republican Senator Ted Cruz in 2018. Cruz won more comfortably against former Representative Colin Allred last November, with his 9-point victory again showing Texas as a Republican stalwart.
President Donald Trump defeated former Vice President Kamala Harris by 14 percentage points in Texas in 2024, a margin that exceeded his victories in the state in 2016 and 2020.
What To Know
Three potential Democratic candidates for U.S. Senate have emerged as viable alternatives to Republicans and are neck-and-neck, according to polling of 1,154 registered voters conducted May 28 and June 7 by the University of Texas at Tyler.
Representative Jasmine Crockett was named by respondents as the current top choice for shared values at 30 percent support, followed by O’Rourke (29 percent) and Allred (28 percent). Representative Joaquin Castro trailed at 13 percent.
But when asked which Democrat would have the best chance to defeat a Republican in a general election, Democrats favored Allred (34 percent) over Crockett (27 percent). O’Rourke received 24 percent of support and Castro received 14 percent.
“Although many observers have suggested an Allred candidacy for Senate would be a predictable choice for the Democrats, Representative Crockett’s frequent and vocal opposition to President Trump has struck a chord with many Democratic voters, suggesting she might be a viable candidate for U.S. Senate in 2026,” said Ken Wink, a UT Tyler professor and interim center director.
On the GOP side of U.S. Senate primaries in Texas, Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton received support from 44 percent of self-identified Republican primary voters, outpacing incumbent Senator John Cornyn, who is favored by 34 percent of Republican primary voters. Another 23 percent remain undecided.
Polling of a hypothetical election matchup for lieutenant governor shows Republican incumbent Dan Patrick leading Democratic state Representative Vikki Goodwin, 46 percent to 42 percent. Roughly 12 percent of respondents remain undecided.
Texas voters are shifting their primary focus from immigration and U.S.-Mexico border security to concerns about the economy and inflation, according to Wink.
Respondents cited the economy (inflation) as the most pressing issue at 21 percent, with border security being the second most cited policy at 19 percent. K-12 education was a distant third at 10 percent.
Policy importance shifts based on partisanship. While Republican respondents identified securing the border as the top policy initiative and the second most cited choice among independents, it was not among the top three choices of Democratic respondents.
“Although securing the border was a big issue that had an electoral impact in Texas in 2024, it appears that many voters are more worried about the economy now that the election is over, and the process of governing has started,” Wink said.
What People Are Saying
Representative Jasmine Crockett, in a June 3 letter announcing her run for ranking member of the House Committee on Oversight and Government Reform: “Every hearing, every investigation, every public moment must serve the dual purpose of accountability and must demonstrate why a House Democratic majority is essential for America’s future.”
What Happens Next
Democrats have failed in gubernatorial and U.S. Senate elections for years. Now, they need to make up even more ground, as they lost seats in the Texas legislature and have diminished support among Hispanic voters in regions like South Texas, which have notoriously supported Democratic candidates in past elections.
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