The defending national champion Florida Gators were pummeled by Vanderbilt in the men’s SEC Tournament semifinal. The Michigan Wolverines fell to Purdue in the Big Ten Tournament final, while the Arizona Wildcats and Duke Blue Devils won the Big 12 Tournament and ACC Tournament, respectively.
That all went out the window on Sunday evening.
Once “Selection Sunday” started on CBS, the path to this point mattered much less than the path each No. 1 seed faces in the men’s Division I NCAA Tournament.
Duke (32-2) claimed the tournament’s No. 1 overall seed and will head up the East region. Arizona (32-2) is the No. 1 seed in the West Region, while Michigan (31-3) lords over the Midwest region, and Florida (26-7) is the No. 1 seed in the South.
CBS Sports’ Mackenzie Brooks broke down which No. 1 seed has the easiest and toughest path to the Final Four.
According to Brooks, Duke has the best chance to make the Final Four at 38.3%, followed by Arizona (29.8%), Michigan (29.3%), and Florida (21.2%).
“Recency metrics are going to play a factor now that we have the tournament,” Brooks said. “[Florida] did just get killed by Vandy, and you have another chance to play Vandy, and then to play Houston. Maybe they’re not the same team they were, but it’s a home game. For us, Florida is going to see the toughest road out of their region. Understanding the Duke injuries, but this is about who [you are] facing along the way.”
Brooks also noted that three teams have better odds than Florida to win the national championship: Houston, Iowa State, and UConn.
In the South region, Houston is the No. 2 seed, and Vanderbilt is the No. 5 seed. If Florida and Vandy win their first two games, they would meet in the Sweet 16. Florida edged out Houston in a 65-63 nailbiter to win the national championship last April.
As for Duke’s injuries, junior guard Caleb Foster fractured his foot against North Carolina on March 7, and sophomore center Patrick Ngongba II has been out with right foot soreness. According to The News & Observer, Duke head coach Jon Scheyer said Foster would “be a little while still,” but Ngongba’s progress was “very positive.”
It’s shaping up to be an “over my dead body” tournament for Duke freshman center/forward Cameron Boozer, who is projected to be a top 3 pick in the 2026 NBA Draft.
March Madness officially commences with the First Four games on March 17 and 18. See the full men’s bracket here.
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