The Sunshine state’s 2023 crackdown on undocumented workers sparked fears of economic catastrophe, especially for small businesses. But the boom that followed suggests it could be a model for the new Trump administration.
By Brandon Kochkodin, Forbes Staff
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lorida’s SB1718, which took effect on July 1, 2023, required businesses with 25 or more employees to use E-Verify to confirm the immigration status of new hires. E-Verify is an online system run by the Department of Homeland Security in partnership with the Social Security Administration. It began in 1996 as a voluntary program to help employers verify if new hires are authorized to work in the United States by comparing their information to government records.
The Florida law was part of a broader effort to crack down on undocumented workers in the state. Critics said it placed extra burdens on small businesses, especially in agriculture, construction, and hospitality, where finding workers was already difficult. Many warned it could lead to labor shortages and disrupt the Sunshine state’s economy.
So far, the critics have been wrong. Florida’s economy has continued to grow despite warnings about the impact of SB1718. According to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, the state’s gross domestic product increased by 9.2% last year, tops in the nation and outpacing the national average by nearly 3 percentage points. In 2024, Florida’s economic growth remains strong, surpassing the national average in the first two quarters of the year, with Florida being one of just a handful of states to post 6% growth or higher in both quarters. This comes despite the Florida Policy Institute warning that the E-Verify requirement alone could cost the state $12.6 billion in its first year.
Florida’s SB1718 could offer a glimpse into how the new Trump administration’s crackdown on undocumented workers might affect small businesses nationwide—or be tempered to minimize the impact. During his campaign, Trump promised an immigration policy even harsher than Florida’s, including mass deportations—something the state can’t do. But campaign promises are often bluster, and Trump, if anything, is a negotiator known for asking for the moon to get what he ultimately wants or will settle for. Republicans—and Trump himself—have always been big boosters of small businesses. Trump’s incoming Border Czar, Tom Homan, has already acknowledged that without large-scale funding from Congress, deportations are more likely to be targeted than sweeping.
If that’s the case—and with two months before any new policies could even take effect, it’s anyone’s guess what will happen—Florida’s law and its impact could provide valuable insight as to what small business owners can expect.
There’s a few reasons for that. First, President-elect Trump has drawn heavily from Florida to fill key positions in his administration. He’s called on Senator Marco Rubio for Secretary of State, and Congressmen Matt Gaetz as Attorney General (he’s since withdrawn himself as a nominee) and Mike Waltz as National Security Advisor. Susie Wiles, a veteran political strategist with deep Florida ties, will serve as his Chief of Staff. The Florida-heavy lineup has even led Trump ally Roger Stone to wonder aloud if Trump is aiming to fulfill the campaign pledge of his former Republican primary rival, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, to “Make America Florida.”
Furthermore, in 2018, during his first term, then President Trump proposed making E-Verify mandatory for all employers and spending $23 million to expand the program, which has been mostly voluntary since 1996. Congress, however, resisted, and the proposal never became law.
“SB 1718 requires employers to use E-Verify to check the employment eligibility of employees,” said a spokesperson for Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, while also pointing to Florida’s robust economic growth since the law was passed. “This is common sense. It’s against the law to hire illegal immigrants in this country. E-Verify ensures the law is enforced.”
The Florida law’s lack of disruption may be due to the carveouts built into it. It applies only to businesses with more than 25 employees, which, given that 96% of small businesses have 10 or fewer employees, according to small business advocacy group the Association for Enterprise Opportunity (AEO), exempts almost all of them. And only new hires after the law’s effective date must be entered into the system. Employers are required to terminate any current worker found to be undocumented, but the provision doesn’t cover temporary workers or independent contractors.
American Compass, a conservative think tank founded by former Mitt Romney advisor Oren Cass, has called for a national E-Verify requirement, similar to Trump’s earlier proposals. Currently, 10 states, including Florida, have any such mandate, according to the American Staffing Association, a trade group for the staffing industry. The think tank, aligned with the so-called “conservative labor movement,” argues that a national requirement need not cause “sudden shocks.” It suggests issuing short-term work permits to undocumented workers already in the U.S., potentially leading to permanent citizenship if the border and labor market are secured and the individual pays a fine for entering the country illegally.
Brittany Sakata, general counsel for the American Staffing Association (ASA), says E-Verify is one of the most efficient and well-regarded programs run by the government. She notes that most complaints about the system arise only during government shutdowns.
Sakata says the Florida law has had minimal impact on staffing agencies in the state. While most staffing firms easily meet the 25-employee threshold, she hasn’t heard of any issues. This may be because staffing agencies routinely conduct I-9 checks, as part of their standard hiring practices. The I-9 process, now mandatory for all employers, requires an employee to fill out a form and present certain documents—a wide variety are acceptable—showing both their identity and eligibility to work. The employer must review the documents and then retain the I-9 form. But most small businesses don’t have to take that next step—of checking the information against E-Verify. (Certain employers, such as government contractors, do have a federal requirement that they use E-Verify.)
“It’s a huge part of the staffing business, completing I-9 and E-Verify,” she says. “They have to do it and they have to do it well because it’s a huge area of legal exposure if they don’t.” In her role as general counsel, Sakata frequently conducts webinars and creates educational materials for ASA members on immigration compliance.
While Sakata underscores the importance of compliance with E-Verify regardless of state requirements, some business owners echo her view that meeting these standards doesn’t have to be difficult or disrupt hiring.
Business owners in Mount Dora, Florida—a small town 40 miles north of Orlando known for its charming downtown, annual festivals, and bass fishing—say the state’s new E-Verify law hasn’t had much of an impact on their operations. Trump won 56% of the vote in Lake County, where the town is located, in line with the 56% total he garnered across the entire state.
Chris Gordon, 39, says Florida’s E-Verify provision has had little impact on his business. He’s owned The Yard Stop Garden Center in Mount Dora since 2013. The company has 65 employees and offers landscaping services along with plants, mulch, stone, and just about everything else needed to turn a yard into an oasis.
Gordon says that in order to contract with the state, he already had to use the system for all of his employees. “It didn’t cause me any problems at all,” he says. “I actually helped some of my friends figure out how to do it, what to do, just so they were kosher with the laws.” Asked if he was aware of anyone in the community who did have problems once the law was put into place, Gordon said he couldn’t think of anyone.
Thirteen miles south of the Yard Stop, on the rural southern edge of Lake Dora—the 4,300-acre lake that divides the town—sits Long and Scott Farms. Owned and run by 69-year-old Hank Scott, the farm grows Zellwood sweet corn, cabbage, and cucumbers for pickling while also hosting events.
Inside his office, where a swivel chair with the University of Florida Gator mascot stitched on it takes center stage, Hank Scott explains how he staffs his 680-acre farm, which generates about $8 million in annual revenue. Long and Scott Farms, with fewer than 25 full-time employees, falls just below the threshold for Florida’s mandatory E-Verify requirements. Scott says they’ve kept headcount steady for years by relying on the Department of Labor’s H-2A program. The program allows agricultural employers to bring in temporary foreign workers to fill seasonal jobs when U.S. workers aren’t available—something Scott says he’s been doing for about 12 years.
“We bring in 60 to 80 people, sometimes more depending on the season,” Scott says. But, that help doesn’t come cheap. Scott says because there’s a housing shortage in Lake County, the temporary workers he hires from Mexico are put up in Davenport, a town 50 miles to the south. “It’s a long expensive deal, but we’re guaranteed that we got good help. The only way we can stay in business is by depending on them.”
Scott isn’t concerned about how a crackdown on immigration might affect him or other farms his size or larger. He believes fears of mass deportations are overblown, pointing out that it’s clear the country would grind to a halt without foreign labor.
More importantly, he says that paying workers off the books doesn’t make sense (as well as being illegal).
“The elites think that you can pay people under the table and pay them less than minimum wage,” Scott says. He says agricultural workers, especially those working in the fields, understand their value, and trying to use undocumented workers isn’t worth the risk. “You know, you might do it for a maid or a landscaper, but you ain’t gonna get away with it on 60, 70, 80 people.”
While farmers like Scott may not be panicking, trade groups representing agriculture aren’t leaving anything to chance. They’re pushing for expanded use of temporary work visas and the H-2A program. History is on their side—H-2A visas have jumped over 50% from 2018 to 2023, according to the U.S. Government Accountability Office.
One member of the incoming Trump Administration who should have an appreciation for how crucial these visas are is the man set to reoccupy the oval office himself. Trump’s businesses have sought to hire at least 1,670 temporary foreign workers over the past 16 years, many of them in Florida, according to an analysis of records from the Department of Labor that date back to 2008. The Trump Organization has made use of both the H-2A program for agricultural workers, who were hired for the Virginia winery, and H-2B for non-agricultural workers, who were employed as servers, clerks, housekeepers and kitchen staff at clubs, including Mar-a-Lago.
Natalie Madeira Cofield, CEO of AEO and a former assistant administrator for the Small Business Administration, says small business owners should consider the potential impact if the new Trump administration follows through on its promises—or even if it just adopts the relatively milder, Florida-inspired approach.
“What we know is that there’s a commitment to do this [mass deportations] on day one,” says Cofield, while acknowledging it’s not a given it will happen. Cofield recommends that small business owners take time now to prepare just in case by reviewing their workforces, engaging with elected officials, and developing continuity plans to prepare for potential disruptions.
“The question of the day is what will be the Trump administration’s strategy to do this?,” Cofield asks. “If not done correctly, it could leave the legal and enforcement burden on small business owners. That would be both uncomfortable and concerning.”
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