Lin Ying-yu, an assistant professor at the Graduate Institute of International Affairs and Strategic Studies at Tamkang University in Taiwan, said Beijing’s hesitation may reflect internal uncertainty about how to manage defence diplomacy under Trump’s second term.
“China has yet to settle on a clear approach to engaging the US,” he said. “At present, (President) Xi Jinping has not had direct or formal dialogue with Trump since his return to office so I think China has not finalised its position on how to handle relations with the US under this new term.”
Sending a lower-level delegation would be a way for Beijing to test the waters, Lin added.
“This is a way for China to first observe how the US responds in the security and defence space, before deciding what kind of posture or attitude to adopt going forward.”
ALLEGED CORRUPTION PROBE NOT AT PLAY?
Dong, a Chinese naval admiral from the People’s Liberation Army (PLA), assumed the role of Chinese defence minister in late 2023.
His predecessors Wei Fenghe and Li Shangfu were both expelled from the ruling Communist Party and dismissed from their roles over bribes and other “serious disciplinary violations”.
Observers have noted Dong’s own brush with the wide-ranging corruption campaign, which has plagued China’s military since last year – nine PLA generals and at least four aerospace defence industry executives were removed as a result.
Dong’s SLD absence has prompted speculation of him being under an alleged disciplinary probe – but defence officials and analysts now caution against drawing direct conclusions, noting his recent travel history and no official comments linking him to misconduct.
“There’s been speculation about whether Admiral Dong is in political trouble, but that doesn’t ring true,” said Drew Thompson, a former US Department of Defense (DOD) official, in a LinkedIn post shared on Friday, which noted Dong’s three-day visit to Berlin in mid-May, where he met with Germany’s defence minister and addressed UN officials.
Dong also recently held a high-profile meeting with Thailand’s Chief of Defense Forces, General Songwit Noonpakdee, in Beijing. Thompson said it signalled that Dong remained active in his official capacity as Chinese defence minister despite his absence from the annual regional forum.
Lin said there was no clear connection between the ongoing anti-corruption drive within the PLA and Dong’s SLD absence.
“In China, decisions to prosecute senior officials are made at the top levels of the party hierarchy. These are not developments that outsiders can easily interpret or anticipate,” he said.
From his assessment of the situation, it also appeared that Dong might have been given clearance to attend the summit in Singapore and may even have intended to go. “But due to how the optics might play out, they likely opted for a lower-level delegation instead.”
“I don’t believe this has anything to do with the current probe inside the PLA,” Lin added.
REVERTING TO A PREVIOUS NORM
Attended by world leaders and high-ranking government officials from more than 40 countries, as well as academics and business leaders, SLD is widely regarded as the region’s most prominent multilateral forum on defence and security.
China’s attendance and participation is often among the highlights. The US has maintained consistent participation at the highest level, with its defence secretary attending every edition of the forum. By contrast, Beijing has varied its level of representation over the years, observers added.
Since 2019, excluding 2020 and 2021 when the forum was cancelled due to the COVID-19 pandemic, China’s last three defence ministers, Wei Fenghe, Li Shangfu, and Dong Jun each attended and delivered keynote speeches.
But the level of engagement has not always been consistent, analysts noted.
China began participating more actively in 2007, initially sending deputy chiefs of the General Staff, including Zhang Qinsheng and Ma Xiaotian, between 2007 and 2010.
In 2011, during a period of improved China-US ties following then-President Hu Jintao’s visit to Washington, Beijing dispatched its then-defence minister, Liang Guanglie, to the forum for the first time.
But it lowered its profile the following year, sending Ren Haiquan, then vice president of the Academy of Military Sciences instead.
Between 2013 and 2018, China continued to participate, but again at a sub-ministerial level. Delegation leaders during this period included Deputy Chiefs of the General Staff Qi Jianguo (2013), Wang Guanzhong (2014), and Sun Jianguo (2015 and 2016), as well as He Lei, vice president of the Academy of Military Sciences (2017 and 2018).
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