The prospect of peace talks between Russia and Ukraine being mediated by Pope Leo XIV at the Vatican is unlikely due to the influence of Russian Orthodoxy and Moscow’s mistrust of the Catholic Church, according to political analysts and religious figures.
Shortly after being elected, Pope Leo XIV said that the Vatican could act as a mediator in global conflicts, without specifically mentioning Russia’s war against Ukraine.
He later confirmed it to Italy’s Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, saying the Vatican was indeed willing to host the next round of negotiations to try to put an end the war between Russia and Ukraine.
After Kyiv and Moscow’s direct talks in Istanbul yielded almost no progress, US President Donald Trump also mentioned the Vatican as a possible venue, following a conversation with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin.
According to a recent statement by the Vatican’s Secretary of State, Cardinal Pietro Parolin, the pontiff plans to “if necessary, provide the Vatican, the Holy See, as a direct meeting (place) between the two sides”.
Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy travelled to the Vatican earlier this month and met Pope Leo XIV following his inaugural Mass. Zelenskyy is in favour of peace talks between Kyiv and Moscow being held at the Vatican, Ukraine’s foreign minister confirmed to Euronews last week.
However, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov criticised the idea, saying that it would be “a bit inelegant for Orthodox countries to use a Catholic platform” for talks.
Moscow’s wariness of mediation by the Vatican predates Pope Leo XIV, according to Pasquale Ferrara, the director general for political affairs at Italy’s foreign ministry, and a professor of diplomacy and negotiation at the LUISS University in Rome.
“I don’t think Putin sees the Vatican as having the necessary neutrality,” Ferrara told Euronews. “This scepticism existed even under Pope Francis and is rooted in the long-standing coolness between the Russian Orthodox Church and the Catholic Church.”
That tension has deep historical roots, stretching back to the Great Schism of 1054, when Christianity split into the Roman Catholic and Eastern Orthodox churches.
Russian Orthodox Church’s role
In August 2024, the Ukrainian parliament passed a bill banning activities of religious organisations connected to Russia and those that have administrative centres there.
The legislation specifically targets the activities of the Orthodox Church of the Moscow Patriarchate (UOC-MP), which is legally subordinate to the Russian Orthodox Church, the leading church in Russia and a close ally of the Kremlin, fully supporting Moscow’s war in Ukraine.
All UOC-MP communities were given nine months to fully break ties with the Russian church.
Ukraine’s Security Service accused a number of clergymen of the Ukrainian Orthodox Church of the Moscow Patriarchate of collaborating with the Krmelin and justifying Russian aggression. Over 100 UOC-MP clergy members have come under criminal investigation since the outbreak of the full-scale war, the Security Service of Ukraine said.
Once a dominant religious group in Ukraine, the past few years have seen many Moscow Patriarchate communities switch allegiance to independent churches, namely the Ukrainian Orthodox Church of the Kyiv Patriarchate.
Founded in 2018 as an institution representing Ukrainian Orthodoxy fully independent of Moscow, it was granted the tomos of autocephaly — a document signifying canonical independence — by Ecumenical Patriarch Bartholomew of Constantinople, the most senior priest of the Eastern Orthodox Church.
The Moscow Patriarchate hasn’t recognised the decision and later tried to portray the Ukrainian government’s steps against the Moscow-linked church as “persecution of Christians.”
The head of the Russian Orthodox Church (ROC), Patriarch Kirill, has been an ardent supporter of the war and a vital ally for Putin.
Patriarch Kirill’s vocal support for Putin’s war has drawn criticism from the likes of Pope Francis and was dubbed a “heresy” by other religious authorities.
Dubbed the Tobacco Metropolitan for his alleged profiteering off of duty-free cigarettes in the 1990s, Patriarch Kirill fiercely maintains his pro-war stance, blaming the invasion on “gay parades” and making unproven claims that Ukrainians have been “exterminating” Russian civilians in the Donbas.
In early May 2022, attempts by Brussels to add Kirill to the EU’s list of sanctioned Russian nationals led to tensions among European leaders after Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán blocked the move.
The ROC’s stance has seen some Orthodox Churches cut ties with the Moscow Patriarchate, including one in Amsterdam.
Bishop Hlib Lonchyna, a Ukrainian Greek Catholic prelate, expressed his doubt about Russia’s willingness to genuinely engage in peace talks or accept the Vatican as a mediator.
“Pope Leo XIV has no influence over Russia. They don’t recognise our Church at all,” he told Euronews.
Unlikely, but not unthinkable?
The Vatican has a long history of mediating wars, conflicts and political disagreements, although it tends to work behind the scenes and avoid publicising its efforts.
One of its greatest achievements in recent history was facilitating the talks between the US and Cuba in 2014 that ultimately resulted in the resumption of diplomatic relations.
The Vatican has also often hosted far less secret diplomatic initiatives, such as when it brought together the rival leaders of war-torn South Sudan in 2019. The encounter was made famous by the image of Pope Francis kissing their feet to beg them to make peace.
However, for the Kremlin, the idea of Pope Leo XIV mediating peace talks may be seen as an extension of the Catholic Church’s Western legacy, according to Ferrara of the Italian foreign ministry.
Ultimately, successful mediation depends less on the identity of the mediator and more on the parties’ genuine willingness to seek peace, he said.
“Russia has not shown the kinds of signals that would indicate a real desire to negotiate,” Ferrara added.
On 16 May, Russia and Ukraine held their first face-to-face discussions since shortly after Moscow’s full-scale invasion. During the talks in Istanbul, the two sides agreed to exchange 1,000 prisoners of war each, in what is the biggest such swap to date.
The discussions delivered no wider breakthrough on resolving Russia’s war, and no further direct peace talks are scheduled, the Kremlin said last week. Moscow has had no issues with Ankara playing the host.
Nonetheless, Honduran Cardinal Oscar Rodriguez Maradiaga said last week that he believed that the Vatican could still act as a mediator between Russia and Ukraine.
“It is very difficult, yes, but everything is possible with Pope Leo XIV — he enjoys the trust of global leaders,” he told the Italian newspaper La Stampa.
Ferrara also said that the Vatican may have a role to play, despite the challenges.
“We should not be too sceptical about the constructive role religion can play in building a new international order,” he added.
Read the full article here
