Democratic mayoral primary winner and state Assemblyman Zohran Mamdani is barely leading the pack of candidates to potentially govern New York City in a new poll released Tuesday.
The survey shows he is in a statistical tie with former New York Governor Andrew Cuomo and Republican candidate Curtis Sliwa after previously landing positive polls on the heels of his primary win.
Newsweek reached out to political analysts via email for comment.
Why It Matters
The statistical tie between Mamdani, who captured the Democratic nomination with a surprise primary win, and Cuomo, running under his new “Fight and Deliver” party, underscores the unprecedented realignment of New York City politics. Traditionally, the Democratic primary winner holds a commanding lead into November.
This year, however, Mamdani’s break from establishment norms, as a democratic socialist—and his ambitious policy proposals—have not at the moment garnered formal public endorsements from New York’s Democratic leaders, reflecting the degree of uncertainty and division within the party.
His platform, which proposes measures like free city buses and city-owned grocery stores, marks a distinct departure from prior mayoral campaigns and long-standing party orthodoxies.
The poll results emerge as Cuomo relaunched his campaign as an independent following his primary defeat by Mamdani. The state assemblyman, meanwhile, continued drawing support through a platform centered on affordability and sweeping progressive reforms. With multiple prominent independents in the race—including Mayor Eric Adams and other rivals—the New York City mayoral contest has entered a ramped up and competitive phase.
What To Know
In the HarrisX poll released Tuesday, Mamdani received 26 percent of the vote in a four-way race. Cuomo picked up 23 percent; Adams collected 13 percent; and Sliwa landed 22 percent.
Cuomo, Mamdani and Sliwa all fall within the margin of error of 4.1 percent. The survey was conducted online July 7 and July 8 among 585 registered New York City voters.
The poll was also conducted before Cuomo announced his bid to run as an independent.
In head-to-head matchups, the survey shows Mamdani surging ahead of Adams, 43 percent to 36 percent, but faring poorly against Cuomo.
In the two-person matchup, Cuomo received 50 percent of the vote compared to Mamdani’s 35 percent.
Newsweek also reached out to Mamdani and Adams’ campaigns via email for comment.
In other polls since his primary win, Mamdani has held a decisive lead over Cuomo, Adams and Sliwa.
What People Are Saying
Sliwa, in an emailed statement sent to Newsweek reacting to the poll: “For the first time since 2009, a Republican for NYC mayor is within the margin of error to win. That Republican is me. The momentum is real. I’m running to be the People’s Mayor and I’m going to win on November 4th!”
Mamdani posted to X on Monday: “While Andrew Cuomo and Eric Adams trip over each other to win the approval of billionaires in backrooms, our campaign remains focused on working New Yorkers and their clear desire for a different kind of politics.”
Adams, on X last week: “Zohran Mamdani studied poverty. I lived it. He’s an academic elitist with plans he can’t implement, or worse, that would hurt working-class New Yorkers. Affordability is a real crisis, and I’m fighting for the people who feel it every single day. I grew up poor, joined the working class, and have spent my life fighting for them. Over the past three years, I’ve put $30 billion back in their pockets through targeted tax relief and expanded benefits. This campaign, like my mayoralty, is about them.”
Dritan Nesho, CEO of HarrisX, in the poll: “These numbers show a volatile race still taking shape. While the progressive base is fueling Mamdani’s rise, Cuomo’s broad name recognition and moderate appeal make him a formidable general election challenger.”
What Happens Next
With the general election approaching in November, polling will play an increasingly critical role, particularly as Cuomo and other independent candidates weigh their odds against Mamdani.
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