Democratic candidate Zohran Mamdani’s chances of becoming New York City’s mayor have hit a new high this week over former Governor Andrew Cuomo and Republican candidate Curtis Sliwa.
Why It Matters
The 2025 New York City mayoral election is shaping up as one of the most closely watched political contests in the United States, with significant implications for national politics, the future of progressive policy and representation in America’s most populous city. Mamdani, if elected, would become New York City’s first Muslim mayor, marking a moment of historic significance amid a backdrop of religious and political polarization.
His candidacy has reverberated nationally, drawing attacks from prominent conservatives and support from influential Democratic leaders. The election is also seen as a bellwether for shifts in urban policy priorities and party alignments, with issues like affordability, crime and the city’s response to President Donald Trump’s administration at the forefront.
What To Know
With the general election scheduled for November 4, Mamdani leads the field with a whopping 89.6 percent chance of victory, according to prediction market Polymarket at 9:47 p.m. ET Friday. His main rival, Cuomo, holds a 9.5 percent probability, while Sliwa has less than 1 percent.
Mamdani’s odds hit a high at 1 p.m. ET Thursday, at 90.3 percent.
Polling data reinforces Mamdani’s front-runner status. A Suffolk University poll released in late September placed Mamdani with 45 percent of likely voters, 20 points ahead of Cuomo, who captured 25 percent. Other contenders at the time, including Sliwa and incumbent Mayor Eric Adams, trailed with single digits.
The dynamics of the race shifted after Adams ended his reelection campaign. Some analyses indicate Adams’ departure could help consolidate opposition votes behind Cuomo.
What People Are Saying
Columbia University professor Robert Y. Shapiro, to Newsweek via email on Friday when asked if Sliwa potentially dropping out would help Cuomo: “Yes, if Sliwa drops out, his voters are likely to want to vote against Mamdani, who has been amply demonized as a too far extreme Marxist/communist/socialist and who has supported defunding the police, a policy totally at odds with the gung-ho law and order support of Sliwa’s Republican and anti-crime followers. The only way to defeat Mamdani is to support his closest rival Cuomo. It is simple arithmetic. Mamdani’s lead over Cuomo would significantly tighten.”
Mamdani, on X Wednesday: “Every day, Donald Trump issues a new threat against an American city — very often his own hometown. But we can stand up to his bullying and win. As Mayor, I’ll work every single day with our state and federal partners to protect New York City.”
Trump, on Truth Social Thursday: “Best thing that could happen to the Republican Party? A Communist Mayor in NYC. The Dems have gone stone cold CRAZY! President DJT foxbusiness.com/video/63805351”
What Happens Next
The race concludes with the general election on November 4. While Mamdani commands a sizable lead, questions remain about whether his opponents can consolidate enough support to close the gap.
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