In my running back start/sit article last week, I reviewed my running back options while mentioning that a win would put my team in the fantasy postseason with a chance to win one million dollars. I had enough right in my lineup to advance, and my success was helped by facing a team without Christian McCaffrey and Tetairoa McMillan, who were on bye.
This week, there were a couple of players who stood out on both sides of the start/sit equation based on my early projections. Here’s a look at those players:
Starts
Rico Dowdle, Carolina Panthers
Over the past month, Dowdle has lost some of his fantasy luster due to not scoring in his last three games and struggling to find daylight in the run game (3.2 yards per carry with no rushes over 20 yards). His regression in play allowed Chuba Hubbard to jump him in snaps last week (59% to 42%). Dowdle had RB1 snaps over his four previous games (72%, 79%, 83%, and 65%).
His best success in fantasy points came in three games (32.40, 33.90, and 28.10), when Dowdle made bigger plays and scored four of his six touchdowns. Despite the appearance of a weaker role in Week 13, the Panthers gave him 20 touches against the Rams, leading to 79 combined yards with two catches. The Saints held him to a steady outcome in Week 10 (18/53/1 with three catches for 10 yards) in a home loss.
Heading into Week 15, Carolina ranks eighth in the NFL in rushing yards (333/1,512/7) to running backs while gaining 4.5 yards per carry. Their backs have been more active in the passing game (55/461/4 – 8.4 yards per catch) this season.
New Orleans ranks just below the league average in running back defense (298.10 fantasy points) in PPR formats. Backs have the third-most attempts (353) against them due to game score, but they gain 4.2 yards per carry. The Saints allowed 13 touchdowns to running backs with a league-low 52 targets (42/304/3). The Bears’ (33/216/2 with three catches for 27 yards) and Buccaneers’ (33/137/1 with three catches for 28 yards and one score) running backs have had the most success.
I have Dowdle ranked highly this week, putting him in the go zone for the fantasy teams coin flipping the two Panthers’ running backs.
Devin Neal, New Orleans Saints
Multiple times this week, I’ve written about the direction of Neal, putting him in the start column in fantasy leagues as an RB2. Here are some outtakes from my earlier waiver wire article:
The sign is shining for Neal over his next two matchups at home (CAR and NYJ). The Saints had him on the field for 74%, 82%, and 71% of their plays over the past three weeks. He comes off his best NFL game (19/70/1 with one catch for 14 yards). Over his previous three matchups, Neal had a reasonable floor in catches (3/9, 5/43, and 3/22).
Carolina comes into this week ranked 23rd vs. running backs (296/1,411/13 – 4.8 yards per carry with 62 catches for 380 yards and two touchdowns on eighty targets). The Jets have the fourth-worst defense against running backs (354/1,569/16 with 44 catches for 356 yards and four touchdowns).
The Panthers’ defense has allowed 20.00 fantasy points or more to running backs in six consecutive games (35.80, 27.10, 20.60, 39.90, 32.60, and 27.30).
In the first run of my projections, I have Neal on a path to gain 71 combined yards with three catches and a 75% chance of scoring, leading to 14.63 fantasy points in PPR formats.
Add These Players in Fantasy for the Playoff Run
Sit
Kyren Williams, Los Angeles Rams
Williams doesn’t have the profile of a fantasy sit based on his RB9 rank this season in fantasy points (204.90) and the Rams’ ability to create many scoring chances in most games. Only twice this season had he scored under 10.00 fantasy points (Week 7 – 8.50 and Week 12 – 5.80). Williams has a touchdown in five of his past six matchups (six total TDs), but he continues to have a low opportunity in the passing game (two catches or fewer in 11 matchups).
The Rams have stated they want to keep Williams fresh for the postseason. He had over 14 rushing attempts only once over his last nine starts.
The Lions come into Week 15 with the best running back defense (222.40 fantasy points). They’ve allowed only six touchdowns to backs, with them gaining 4.0 yards per rush and 6.2 yards per catch.
I have Williams projected to score 13.23 fantasy points in Week 13, which is a reasonable floor for him. If he doesn’t produce a touchdown, his fantasy outlook drops to 7.23 fantasy points.
I like to play my best players, meaning I wouldn’t sit Williams even in a below-par matchup. In shallow formats, game managers could have better running back depth, creating a reason to start another player over Williams.
Add These Players in Fantasy for the Playoff Run
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