Miami (OH) were supposed to be one of the main characters of the NCAA men’s Division I basketball tournament this year.
The group of ragtag players went 31-0 in the regular season in the MAC conference, and they were ready to take on March Madness regardless of whether pundits thought they were good enough to be playing in the tournament.
Although the RedHawks still might make it to the dance, their story has completely changed after losing in the opening round of the MAC tournament to a middling UMass Minutemen squad.
After narrowly beating UMass in the regular season, Miami (OH) couldn’t do it twice in the postseason, dropping out of the MAC tournament as soon as it began.
While bracket projectionists, specifically ESPN’s Joe Lunardi, still have the RedHawks sneaking into the tournament as an at-large bid, there is now a massive debate over whether the MAC deserves two teams playing for the national championship.
In the world of narrative warfare, the RedHawks should get into the tournament. They went 31-0 in conference play, and, like it or not, people want to see them play in the bracket to see if they can do anything once there.
But in the world of analytics, Miami (OH) shouldn’t even be allowed to look at a March Madness bracket.
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After Miami (OH)’s loss to UMass, KenPom, the lauded college basketball rating system devised by Ken Pomeroy, dropped them down their rankings like a heavy stone in the ocean.
Teams above the RedHawks in KenPom?
The 15-17 LSU Tigers.
The 12-20 Marquette Golden Eagles.
The 13-18 Notre Dame Fighting Irish.
Miami (OH) is ranked 93rd by KenPom, which might not even be good enough to get them into the NIT if both tournaments were based solely on advanced analytics.
But fortunately for the RedHawks and their fans, KenPom and other statistical websites are not the ones who pick who plays in March Madness.
Miami (OH)’s story hasn’t gone the way it wanted after finishing 31-0, but I don’t think their tale is done yet, regardless of how shocking their KenPom ranking is.
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