Vice President Kamala Harris has a slim national lead over former President Donald Trump two weeks before Election Day, according to the results of a new poll.
A poll released on Tuesday by Reuters/Ipsos showed Harris with a 46 percent to 43 percent lead over Trump. The poll was conducted online among 4,129 U.S. adults between October 16 and October 21. It has a 2 percent margin of error.
Support for both candidates improved among likely voters, although the gap remained the same at 3 percentage points, with Harris preferred by 48 percent of respondents and Trump preferred by 45 percent.
Newsweek reached out for comment to the Harris and Trump campaigns via email on Tuesday.
Reuters noted that “Harris’ lead over Trump might not be enough to win the election even if it holds through Nov 5,” pointing out that former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton won the national popular vote over Trump in 2016 by around 2 percentage points but lost in the Electoral College.
The accuracy of polling this year is anything but certain. Support for Trump was underestimated in most 2016 and 2020 presidential election polls, while Democratic support was underestimated in 2022 midterm polls.
The new poll included encouraging signs for the former president in terms of the opinions of voters on immigration and the economy. Clear majorities said that the country was on “the wrong track” on both issues.
Trump was viewed by respondents as having a “better approach” on the economy than Harris by a 46 percent to 38 percent margin and by a 48 percent to 35 percent margin on immigration.
However, Harris was considered the better candidate to deal with “political extremism and threats to democracy,” holding a 42 percent to 35 percent advantage over the former president.
The poll also gave Harris an encouraging sign in terms of potential voter turnout, which could prove crucial for either candidate. An 87 percent majority of Democratic voters said that they were “completely certain” they would vote this year, while 84 percent of Republicans said the same.
At the same point prior to the 2020 election, in which President Joe Biden defeated Trump narrowly in the Electoral College and by over 7 million votes nationally, 79 percent of Republicans said they were “certain” they would vote, while just 74 percent of Democrats expressed certainty.
Early voting has already started in many states, including in all seven battleground states that are likely to determine the winner. Over 17.1 million ballots had been cast as of early Tuesday evening.
In an average of recent polls compiled by FiveThirtyEight, the vice president’s national lead over the former president had narrowed to just 1.6 percent on Tuesday. Harris was leading by 2.4 percent one week ago.
FiveThirtyEight polling averages showed the candidates effectively tied in four of seven battlegrounds—Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan and Nevada—while Trump had slim leads in Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina.
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