Kinder Morgan (NYSE: KMI) is a leading energy infrastructure company specializing in the transportation and storage of natural gas, oil, CO₂, and bulk materials. The company is scheduled to announce its fiscal first-quarter results on Wednesday, April 16, 2025. Analysts expect earnings of $0.36 per share on revenue of $4.02 billion. This would mark a 9% year-over-year increase in earnings and a 5% rise in revenue compared to $0.33 per share and $3.83 billion reported a year ago. Historically, the stock has declined after earnings 60% of the time, with a median one-day drop of 2.0% and a maximum decline of 6%.
As demand for natural gas rises due to LNG exports, power generation, and AI-driven needs, investors will be paying close attention to the upcoming results. Kinder Morgan has a current market capitalization of $59 billion. Over the past twelve months, it generated $15 billion in revenue, with $4.2 billion in operating profit and $2.5 billion in net income. While actual results versus expectations will drive the near-term stock move, recognizing historical trends could provide an edge for event-driven traders.
For such traders, historical performance can offer insight—either by positioning in advance of earnings or reacting after the release. Alternatively, for those seeking gains with less volatility than individual stocks, the Trefis High-Quality portfolio may be worth considering, as it has outperformed the S&P 500 with returns over 91% since inception. See earnings reaction history of all stocks.
KMI’s Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return
Key insights on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:
- Over the past five years, 20 earnings reports were analyzed, with 8 positive and 12 negative one-day returns. This implies a 40% likelihood of a positive move.
- This percentage increases to 50% when focusing on data from the past three years.
- The median return among the 8 positive events was 2.1%, while the 12 negative ones had a median drop of -2.0%.
Further data covering 5-day (5D) and 21-day (21D) post-earnings returns is summarized in the table below.
Correlation Between 1D, 5D, and 21D Historical Returns
A potentially less risky approach (assuming decent correlation) involves analyzing the relationship between short- and medium-term post-earnings returns, identifying the pair with the strongest correlation, and planning trades accordingly. For instance, if 1D and 5D have high correlation, a positive 1D return could signal a long opportunity over the next 5 days. Below is correlation data based on 5-year and 3-year trends. Note: 1D_5D refers to the correlation between one-day and five-day post-earnings returns.
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