Las Vegas Sands stock (NYSE: LVS), a casino and resort company with operations in Macau and Singapore, is scheduled to announce its fiscal first-quarter earnings on Wednesday, April 16, 2025. Analysts expect earnings of $0.57 per share on revenue of $2.93 billion. This represents a 14% drop in earnings and a 1% decline in revenue compared to the prior year’s figures of $0.66 per share and $2.96 billion. Investors will be watching closely, especially given the backdrop of ongoing macroeconomic pressures and concerns related to tariffs. Historically, the stock has gained in 60% of instances on the day following earnings announcements, with a median gain of 4.6% and a maximum one-day return of 12%.
The company currently has a market capitalization of $23 billion. Over the past twelve months, it generated $11 billion in revenue, $2.5 billion in operating profit, and $1.4 billion in net income. While the reaction will largely depend on how results compare with consensus expectations, understanding historical trends can help improve your odds if you’re an event-driven trader.
There are two key approaches: review historical performance and position yourself ahead of the announcement, or examine correlations between short- and medium-term post-earnings returns to guide your moves after earnings are released. For investors seeking more stable returns with less volatility than individual stocks, the Trefis High-Quality portfolio may be a viable option, having outpaced the S&P 500 with gains of over 91% since inception. See earnings reaction history of all stocks.
LVS’ Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return
Here are some insights on one-day (1D) post-earnings performance:
- Over the last five years, there have been 20 earnings reports, with 12 positive and 8 negative one-day returns. This equates to a 60% rate of positive outcomes.
- This figure rises to 75% when considering just the last 3 years of data.
- The median return for the 12 positive outcomes was 4.6%, while the median decline for the 8 negative outcomes was -4.3%.
Additional post-earnings return data for 5-Day (5D) and 21-Day (21D) periods is included in the summary table below.
Correlation Between 1D, 5D, and 21D Historical Returns
An approach with potentially lower risk (if correlations are strong) is to analyze the relationship between short-term and medium-term post-earnings returns. Identify which pair exhibits the highest correlation and align your trading strategy accordingly. For instance, if the strongest correlation exists between 1D and 5D returns, a positive 1D result may justify a long position for the following 5 days. Below is correlation data using both 5-year and more recent 3-year history. “1D_5D” refers to the correlation between one-day and subsequent 5-day returns.
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